Will the US domestic HDG market begin to waiver?

One distributor informed SteelOrbis that, "Nucor and all three West Coast Mills are struggling to sell", with salespeople from each having approached him with the goal of adding orders to their books over the past week.   Mills are struggling, he noted, and a number of mills are still dying for business.  Case in point:  continued five to six week lead times for HDG.

Some buyers are beginning to question whether recent price upticks will hold through the first half of Q4, with some speculating that things could potentially begin to slip backward by October.  "If mills can hold on for this next increase (which is expected to come at the end of this week), they could make it, but they're not likely to be scaring customers like they did with that first," said another distributor, indicating that fear-induced follow-up orders are not being placed rapidly.   But again, when you compound this with smaller guys undercutting the price of the bigger players, the market once again becomes very, very interesting.

As far as end-use markets go, commercial and residential construction continues to be the Achilles heel for coated products--and now, with the close of the summer fast approaching, any "ramp up" seen during spring and summer will once again begin to die down, as typical for the latter part of the year.  This means previously seen orders for things like appliances, metal roofing / siding, and HVAC systems will once again begin to wane.  That having been said, Galvalume products, as reported last week, continue to remain the "ugly stepsister" of coated products, with the expectation that this trend will not change any time in the foreseeable future.

For now, US domestic HDG base prices are slightly up since our last report, with buyers throughout the industry having resumed their wait-and-see holding pattern, wondering what, if anything, mills will put to paper at the close of the week.  While the ranges listed below represent the most commonly reported transaction ranges, mills continue to make a strong push toward selling at the higher end of prices reported below (if not $1.00 cwt. above).

Shifting focus overseas, China has remained neutral with their pricing for the second week in a row, although some of the second-tier mills have made offerings slightly below the ranges seen below.  In terms of new offerings, India is once again offering 0.019"x48" G90, and they, Taiwan, and Mexico are also now offering 0.012"x40.875" G30.  Although interest in overseas futures remain weak due to the sustained volatility within the domestic market, Mexico is aggressively pushing 0.012"x40.875" G30, and is currently offering approximately $1.00 cwt. below domestic prices-  which, should prices go up again at the end of this week, will likely begin to raise a few eyebrows.

*Mexican offers are FOB loaded truck US border states.

**Chinese, Indian, and Taiwanese offerings are duty-paid FOB loaded truck, US Gulf ports.