Spot market prices for US domestic hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized coil are still strong, sources note, and many believe this trend will continue for the rest of the year.
Although this week’s hot rolled coil prices are still trending at approximately $45 cwt. ($992/mt or $900/nt), FOB mill, CRC and HDG prices have continued to tick upward. This week’s prices for both products have risen by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) and are now being heard at $56-$57 cwt. ($1,235-$1,257/mt or $1,120-$1,140/nt), FOB mill, although some sources have reported spot market transactions that have taken place at slightly above this range.
“I personally think new price on HRC will settle $43-$45 cwt. ($948-$992/mt or $860-$900/nt) thru Q2 of 2024,” one source said. “Mills right now are really flexing their muscle and don’t even want to discuss something realistic [when it comes to spot prices.]”
Others think that mills will be successful in pushing HRC up to $50 cwt. ($1,100/mt or $1,000/nt), FOB mill, before the current uptrend is over.
“I think the mills will get their $50.00,” he said, adding that similar to other market sources, he also agrees that $50 cwt. HRC “is all smoke and mirrors,” based on mills’ desire to get prices up while negotiating customers’ contract pricing for 2024. “I think [this uptrend] will last until Jan/Feb, when folks can start booking imports.”
That suspicion largely tracks with reports from traders, some of whom said they’re seeing hot rolled futures being quoted below $40 cwt. ($882/mt or $800/nt) for March arrival.
“The US steel market is running hot,” a final source added, “but let’s see how long the steam lasts.”