Spot market prices for US domestic hot rolled, cold rolled, and galvanized coil are still firming, although sources say they’re skeptical that higher-priced HRC, CRC and HDG coil will be around long term. On the other hand, thin service center inventories, coupled with renewed demand from the automotive sector and higher scrap prices during this month’s buy cycle, have the potential to keep pushing prices up in the short term.
For example, hot rolled coil prices are now trending at approximately $45 cwt. ($992/mt or $900/nt), FOB mill, against $42-$43 cwt. ($926-$948/mt or $840-$860/nt), FOB mill, a week ago. Current prices are on par with what mills had pushed for early last week, when mills announced they were raising HRC prices to $900/nt.
Since that time, Cleveland Cliffs has rolled out another increase announcement, indicating their new minimum HRC base prices has been set at $50 cwt. ($1,102/mt or $1,000/nt). As of the time of publication, the other mills have yet to follow.
CRC and HDG prices are also up week-over-week and are now being heard at $55-$56 cwt. ($1,213-$1,235/mt or $1,100-$1,120/nt), FOB mill, against $52-$53 cwt. ($1,146-$1,168/mt or $1,040-$1,060/nt), FOB mill, a week ago.
“I am a bit skeptical on $50 cwt. for HRC, but service center inventories are very low so the price may just get there,” one source said, adding that if this does happen, the real question is how long HRC prices will stay there. “My crystal ball is not that clear,” he added.
Others largely agree.
“Do I think it’s possible that mills will be able to get prices up a little bit higher before this thing loses steam? Yes,” a source said. “But do I think that $45 cwt.+ is going to be the new floor for HRC? Absolutely not.”