For the past several weeks, flats market sources from throughout the US have said they believed that the market was at or near its peak, with some saying that they believed we were “sliding into the downward slope of the bell curve.”
Data this week supports those suspicions.
HRC prices are down by about $0.50 cwt. ($11/mt or $10/nt) in the past seven days and are now trending at $52-$54 cwt. ($1,146-$1,191/mt or $1,040-$1,080/nt), FOB mill, while CRC and HDG prices have also softened by that same margin, to an average transaction range of $64.50-$66.50 cwt. ($1,423-$1,466/mt or $1,290-$1,310/nt), also FOB mill.
Mill sources have also quietly shared that they too, believe the late-2023 uptrend has reached its end.
For example, not only did mills attempt to push prime grade scrap down this month by $50/gt (although prices ultimately settled at sideways to down $30/gt, depending on the region), scrap market sources have said they’re already hearing chatter that mills may try to take prices down again in February.
SteelOrbis sources working in downstream market segments, where pricing for their products is largely dictated by what’s going on in the US hot rolled coil market, have said they also believe that steel prices in their markets are more likely to trend down, than up, in the upcoming weeks.
“I think we’re seeing the start of the downside of this cycle,” a source said. “The big questions at this point relate to how long this will last and how far will prices fall before they restabilize.”