US domestic hot dipped galvanized (HDG) coil spot prices have held steady for yet another week but the stable trend may be short lived.
Since last week, US domestic HDG and Galvalume coil base spot prices have remained neutral in the range of $39.00-$41.00 cwt. ($860-$904/mt or $780-$820/nt) and $40.00-$41.00 cwt. ($882-$904/mt or $800-$820/nt), respectively, both ex-Midwest mill. But while spot price ranges haven't changed, with domestic mill order books still only in late October for the most part, buyers aren't finding too much resistance in booking orders on the lower end of the ranges, and even slightly below for above average-sized orders.
Sources tell SteelOrbis that while mills' initial $3.00 cwt. ($66/mt or $60/nt) increase on flat-rolled spot prices in mid-August has largely stuck in the domestic HDG market, the second increase announcement for $2.00-$2.50 cwt. ($44-$55/mt or $40-$50/nt)--depending on the mill--has not been absorbed in a demand environment that is steady, but not warranting price hikes totaling $5.00 cwt. ($110/mt or $100/nt) as domestic overproduction runs rampant.
Some industry insiders have informed SteelOrbis that mills had pinned their hopes on the two August-announced increases being supported--at least in part--by an increase in raw material costs. Early September speculation pointed to a possible uptrend in domestic busheling scrap prices as mills secured their scrap needs for winter steel production. However, such rumblings have now quieted and scrap prices are once again expected to go sideways in October (for the fourth consecutive month)--giving flats mills no support from raw material costs for their increased asking prices.
| Cwt. | Metric Ton (mt) | Net ton (nt) | Change from last week | |
| US domestic HDG base price | $39.00-$41.00 | $860-$904 | $780-$820 | neutral |
| 0.012"x40.875" G30 | ||||
| ex-Midwest mill | $51.00-$52.00 | $1,124-$1,146 | $1,020-$1,040 | neutral |
| 0.019"x48" G90 | ||||
| ex-Midwest mill | $51.00-$53.00 | $1,124-$1,168 | $1,020-$1,060 | neutral |
| US domestic Galvalume base price | ||||
| ex-Midwest mill | $40.00-$41.00 | $882-$904 | $800-$820 | neutral |
| 0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55 | ||||
| ex-Midwest mill | $50.00-$52.00 | $1,102-$1,146 | $1,000-$1,040 | neutral |
Conversely, import offer prices to the US are likely to continue their neutral trend in the short term. Offshore HDG and Galvalume mills have rolled over their offer prices to the US for October and November production (December/January delivery), which keeps import prices mostly in line with US domestic spot prices. Although traders are still seeing a somewhat steady flow of orders for certain common import products such as HDG 0.012"x40.875" G30, interest in much else is silent, and traders are finding it difficult, if not impossible, to convince their customers to book an import order while uncertainty in the US domestic market escalates.
| Import HDG offers to the US | Cwt. | Metric ton (mt) | Net ton (nt) | Change from last week |
| 0.012"x40.875" G30 | ||||
| India* | $50-$51 | $1,102-$1,124 | $1,000-$1,020 | neutral |
| China* | $48.50-$49.50 | $1,069-$1,091 | $970-$990 | neutral |
| Mexico** | $49-$50 | $1,080-$1,102 | $980-$1000 | neutral |
| 0.019" x 48" G90 | ||||
| China* | $49.50-$50.50 | $1,091-$1,113 | $990-1,010 | neutral |
| India* | $52-$54 | $1,146-$1,190 | $1,040-$1,080 | neutral |
| Mexico** | $49-$50 | $1,080-$1,102 | $980-$1000 | neutral |
| Taiwan* | $53-$55 | $1,168-$1,213 | $1,060-$1,100 | neutral |
| Import Galvalume offers to the US | ||||
| 0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55 | ||||
| Taiwan* | $52.50-$53.50 | $1,157-$1,179 | $1,050-$1,070 | neutral |
| Mexico** | $50-$52 | $1,102-$1,146 | $1,000-$1,040 | neutral |
| China* | $52-$53 | $1,146-$1,168 | $1,040-$1,060 | neutral |
| India* | $53-$54 | $1,168-$1,190 | $1,060-$1,080 | neutral |
**DDP loaded truck delivered into Houston