Factors, such as the laze in summer months, holiday season, and higher prices, create a general stagnation in Turkish
stainless steel market. A general distress is observed in the sales except for the ones concluded by the major traders and producers. The impact of the price increases put into effect by worldwide producers last week and the previous week is still observed. However, prices are not expected to slowdown in the short-run. Moreover, rumors in the market are in the direction that prices will increase further late September/early October. The reason for that increase can be indicated as the rise in
stainless steel demand during fall when
production increases in industries such as
automotive,
construction and decoration, and the rebound in stock sales. The major reason that triggered these price increases can be indicated as the nickel prices, which have increased to $28,000/ton for cash payments and to $26,250/ton for 3 months buyer. The impact of the recent rise in nickel prices will reflect to the market in the form of price increase in September. Moreover, any slowdown in the prices is not expected till the end of the year.
Turkey is considered to be a market that will indicate great development in terms of
stainless steel industry in the long-run. Currently, new competitors emerge day by day in the
stainless steel market against the major
stainless steel producers. However, this situation may result in mergers or expansions of major companies with the purpose of becoming monopoly. There are currently many projects regarding
stainless steel service centers. Actually, there are companies from
CIS and from countries which have joined the EU recently, showing interest in Turkish market. Taking into account that
Turkey is indicated as the most developing country in the
automotive industry in the coming years,
Turkey's steel demand will increase for sure. The fact that the FED did not increase interest rates yesterday is a positive development for developing countries such as
Turkey and if political stability is achieved,
Turkey may make a great leap in the coming years. In line with this leap, developing
construction industry and revived
production markets will increase demand for
stainless steel. However, the most important issues are procurement of political stability and peace in the
Middle East region. In the local Turkish market, sales price of Finnish producer Outokumpu
production 304 series
stainless steel of prime quality is at Euro 3,200/ton+VAT. Arcelor
production materials find buyers at levels Euro 200-300 higher. There is a great competition in
stainless steel
pipe market. While products of European and Far Eastern mills are in a challenge in
Turkey, Turkish mills, although not in terms of variety, produce very qualified materials for sure. It is also certain that they will sell more qualified materials at lower prices as soon as they catch lower prices in their
scrap purchases.
Since European mills have difficulty in dispatching their current orders, they do not indicate any tolerance to other countries regarding prices. Therefore, even in the countries closer to
Europe, Far Eastern materials are in vogue. Especially Far Eastern materials that caught the European quality are the ones which are sold most. Of course it is for sure that European goods are still above
Far East in terms of quality; however,
Far East is expected to make a leap in the coming period. In fact, there are mills that have already caught the same quality.
On the side of Chinese and Taiwanese markets, prices are stable after the latest price hikes and inventories are low. General expectation in the Chinese market is that the prices will reach their peak in September. Sales price of Baoseel
production 4-5 mm thick 304/No.1 grade
stainless steel sheet in Shanghai market is $3,180/ton, including, $3,175/mt in Wuxi market and $3,200/mt in Foshan market.
In conclusion, no slowdown in all regions is expected. It is forecasted that these prices will retain their levels as long as nickel stocks keep their levels. If raw material
production increases and if
stainless steel
investments all over the world are completed, there will be a slight slowdown. If we take into consideration that the slowdown-and-speed-up in global economy in today's world continues as a chain reaction, it is certain that prices will not dip as long as the growth in global economy does not stop. In this perspective, the general situation and trends in US, Russian and Chinese economies are very important. Since these economies are very brisk at the moment, there is also an activity in
stainless steel market worldwide, as well. If these economies keep their vivacity next year, in fact it is expected, even if
stainless steel prices decline, it is unlikely that they will fall sharply and nickel inventories are not expected to increase.