Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have been largely unchanged over the past week, but trading activity has remained subdued. Market sources pointed to unconfirmed deals in Vietnam and Europe concluded at discounted prices, suggesting growing pressure on Indian mills to maintain sales momentum. Bids from the Middle East have continued to trail expectations, while uncertainty surrounding potential revisions to Europe’s import safeguard measures and weak sentiment in China have kept most buyers on the sidelines.
Specifically, ex-India HRC offers have remined unchanged at $490-500/mt FOB in the Middle East, but bids received were at lows of $480-485/mt FOB, which unlike earlier weeks did not find acceptance among sellers.
Meanwhile, ex-India offers in Europe have been heard at $545-550/mt FOB, compared to $555/mt FOB last week, but, with drastic changes being proposed in import safeguards like a 47 percent slash in tariff quotas and a doubling of the duty on out-of-quota exports, nervousness has been instilled in the market where large distributors in any case have been preferring local sourcing to imports. Most market insiders believe that changes in import safeguards will have a long-term negative impact on exports of steel to the EU, which accounted for about 45 percent of Indian exports in 2024. “The doubling of duty on out-of-quota imports will practically halt shipments to Europe and is aggravating the already weak sentiments in global trade circles,” a market source said.
However, according to sources, a deal for ex-India HRC was signed in Europe at $590/mt CFR last week, which translates to around $540/mt FOB, but this information has not been confirmed by the time of publication.
At the same time, talk about a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-India signed at $495-498/mt CFR Vietnam has been circulating in the market this week, but by the time of publication this information has not been confirmed by the seller’s side so far. “This deal price could be lower given the material’s grade, while most offers for SAE1006 are estimated at around $515/mt CFR Vietnam,” a local trader told SteelOrbis.
“In the short term too, the mood is bearish after Chinese sellers returned to the market with offers much below the $500/mt FOB mark, pushing Indian offers out of reckoning in most destinations,” an affiliate of Tata Steel Limited told SteelOrbis.
