Although ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have largely remained stable in Europe over the past week, a slight upward bias has been noted in offers for the Middle East, though with no significant trades confirmed during the week. Many Indian sellers report renewed optimism driven by the recent price rebound in China and local price increases in Europe. At the same time, sources indicate that reduced competition from Chinese sellers has revived Indian exporters’ focus on Middle East sales this week.
More specifically, ex-India offers have been voiced at around $510-520/mt FOB, versus $480-500/mt FOB last week, for the Middle East, but have remained stable at $540-550/mt FOB for Europe. Notably, inquiries from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have been increasing, but deals have not materialized so far as buyers are largely waiting for a clearer pricing trend to emerge. “Indian mills are currently seeking export orders for HRC at $540–550/mt CFR for the Middle East, while offers from Chinese suppliers have moved up to $520/mt CFR. A week ago, Japanese and Korean mills sold significant volumes into the Middle East market at $490–500/mt CFR, but they have now stopped booking as they, too, are seeking higher prices,” an Indian trader told SteelOrbis.
In the meantime, offers for ex-India HRC have remained at around $585-595/mt CFR Europe, the same as last week. Even though market activity has slowed due to the holiday season in Europe, sellers have remained in better spirits, hoping for a pickup in trade activity soon, which could provide an opportunity to reassess offer levels based on renewed buying interest.
Thus, with ex-China prices improving at a faster pace and European mills attempting to raise local prices, the combination of these factors is expected to bolster export activity, albeit with a lag that will likely coincide with the end of the holiday period in Europe.
“Sellers are awaiting the next phase, which will provide the support needed to reassess ex-India pricing based on the level of business that comes in,” an affiliate of Tata Steel Limited told SteelOrbis, adding, “We expect demand in the Gulf region to improve soon, while in Europe it will remain more of a wait-and-watch situation.”