The global hot rolled coil (HRC) global market has seen different developments and price trends, depending on the region. While suppliers from Europe have been struggling with overstocking and low demand, decreasing their offers to attract buyers, the Asian market has also continued its downturn, with numerous deals signed at lower levels to different destinations. In the meantime, in Turkey and India some price increases have been seen in local prices, resulting in less aggressive export offers from these countries.
In Turkey, domestic HRC prices have increased to $700-730/mt ex-works this week, up around $40/mt since the end of September. The main reasons cited by Turkish mills are higher production costs and reduced output. Currently, the producers claim they are selling for late November production, while in reality material with a shorter lead time should also be available. Despite the price increase and some purchasing activity seen mainly at $680/mt ex-works, most market players believe the uptrend of HRC prices lacks sustainability. One reason is still extremely low export demand, particularly from the EU. In the meantime, the HRC import segment in Turkey has been filled with ex-Asia offers and trade has continued with deals in the past week. South Korea has sold additional tonnages at $605-615/mt CFR, down $10-15/mt week on week, and the total traded volume reached 50,000-60,000 mt, SteelOrbis understands. Later, the South Korean supplier increased its official offers to $630-640/mt CFR. In addition, Japan has sold 25,000 mt this week at $610/mt CFR, sources report. India has been offering at $620/mt CFR, while offers from China have been absent due to the long holiday in the country. Bids for ex-Russia HRC have been heard at $590/mt CFR at the highest, while the mills’ targets are at $600/mt CFR.
Business activity in the European HRC market has remained weak lately given overstocking and low demand. Official HRC offers from local European producers have been voiced at €770-780/mt ex-works, down by €10-40/mt week on week. However, a more realistic and achievable level from both northern and southern EU mills is estimated at €740-760/mt ex-works and from some at even €720-730/mt ex-works, compared to €750-770/mt ex-works last week. As for import HRC prices, offers to southern Europe have dropped to around €670-730/mt CFR, depending on the origin, down by €10/mt week on week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-Japan offers to Italy at €670/mt CFR, compared to €680-690/mt CFR last week, and ex-Vietnam at €670-680/mt CFR Spain. Other Asian suppliers, like those from Taiwan, Indonesia, and India, have been offering their materials at €680-690/mt CFR southern Europe, down by €10-20/mt week on week.
Vietnamese HRC importers have continued to push for discounts, signing new deals at lower levels. In particular, following a contract for 15,000 mt of ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC signed at $596/mt CFR at the end of last week, market insiders have reported a new deal for ex-Japan coils signed at $587/mt CFR Vietnam this week, which means the prices have dropped by $24-33/mt week on week. Besides, more bookings for ex-China SS400 HRC were reported in Vietnam before Chinese suppliers left the market for the long holiday. In particular, several deals for around 50,000 mt in total of SS400 HRC were signed at $565-570/mt CFR for end of October-November shipments. Meanwhile, the latest offers for ex-China SAE1006 HRC were reported at the end of last week before Chinese suppliers left the market, at $580-590/mt CFR, compared to deal prices at $590-595/mt CFR at the beginning of last week. As a result, the SteelOrbis’ reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $580-590/mt CFR, down $10-20/mt week on week, given the latest deals signed in the country and the levels of most customers’ bids.
Indian HRC exporters have faced continued pressure on their prices over the past week due to lower bids in key markets, but they have refrained from pushing overseas sales, instead focusing on the domestic market which is offering significantly higher realizations amid increased prices, tightening supplies and mills reducing export allocations. The tradable price level for ex-India HRC has been reported in the range of $560-580/mt FOB, lower than last week’s reference prices of $565-600/mt FOB. The lowest official offer from one Indian mill in Vietnam was at $610/mt CFR, which translates to $580-585/mt FOB depending on the cargo size, but most bids for SAE1006 HRC are coming only at $580-590/mt CFR and competitors are ready to provide such prices. Some ex-India HRC offers to the UAE from a Maharashtra-based mill have been at $630/mt CFR, one deal was rumoured at this level but not confirmed.
In the UAE, ex-Japan HRC sales for a total of about 25,000 mt have been closed at $610/mt CFR. In addition, an Australian supplier has recently sold HRC to the GCC region at $600-610/mt CFR, SteelOrbis has learned, and most market sources believe the HRC in question was sold to the UAE. Offers from India and China lack clarity for now. Some sources, familiar with the situation, report offers from India for boron-added HRC are officially as high as $630/mt CFR, although some sources have said that levels of $610/mt CFR and lower are more workable. Chinese sellers are on holiday this week and the most recent price from this source to the UAE was at $615/mt CFR.