Large Indian mills have continued with their strategy of submitting vastly varied hot rolled coil (HRC) export prices, attempting to keep pace with the rapidly changing trade dynamics in key destinations. Besides, with the local market performing better and mills expecting lower production over the next month, they are showing limited interest in HRC export orders.
Sources said that ex-India hot rolled coil prices have been voiced at $500-520/mt FOB for the Middle East, up by $10/mt week on week, though trade activity remained silent in the region after the holiday. According to sources, most mills in India have maintenance shutdowns planned in this quarter, so most expect supply shortages in the domestic market, which will push prices up further.
Meanwhile, Indian suppliers have been quoting higher in Europe and non-traditional markets in Africa, with moderate success in driving modest volume sales. According to the sources, a sale of 10,000 mt was confirmed by a western India-based mill at $630/mt CFR Antwerp, which $5/mt higher than a similar deal in the previous week and translates to around $570/mt FOB. Besides, another trade for an undisclosed tonnage has been reported for delivery to Italy at $630/mt CFR, the sources added.
Besides, talk about a deal for 15,000 mt of ex-India HRC signed at $530-540/mt FOB with Egyptian customers has been circulating in the market this week, but this information has not been confirmed by the time of publication. According to market insiders, this deal indicates that local mills are actively scouting for new markets as fallback options amid the rapidly changing global tariff barriers and trade dynamics.
“Reports of successful deals are good but we cannot take it as an indicative trend. The global markets are upended by tariffs and changed trade flows. There are too many moving parts to forecast a trend. There are too many complications in the market. Therefore, sellers are quoting across a wide range hoping to strike success at any point of the range. Overseas sales are resembling a gamble,” an affiliate of Tata Steel Limited told SteelOrbis.
“Despite the positives of the week, we are still cautious. Exports will continue to remain a challenge for pricing,” he added.
