European hot rolled coil (HRC) demand has remained subdued over the past week as buyers have been holding back from new purchases, citing regulatory uncertainty and adequate stock levels. Market participants say inventories built up during the third quarter, when both domestic and import bookings were made amid bullish expectations, continue to cover current requirements.
More specifically, producers in northern Europe have been facing thin order books, with December output still unsold, while customers show little urgency to conclude bookings. Local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €600-610/mt ex-works for new orders for November and December deliveries, compared to €600-630/mt ex-works last week, though the tradable price level has remained at €570-580/mt ex-works levels in the north, with a few market insiders reporting transactions at below €570/mt.
“Mills need to place November and December production, but buyers are not desperate for volumes,” one trader said.
Meanwhile, in Italy, sources likewise doubt the likelihood of an uptrend in the coming weeks, noting weak appetite for fresh tonnages. HRC offers from Italian mills have remained at €570-580/mt ex-works for November delivery, while the tradable price level has remained €540-550/mt ex-works in Italy, with no sizable deals reported this week.
At the same time, the import market has also slowed sharply. Buyers have kept avoiding Asian origin HRC, wary of potential costs and obligations linked to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Indicative offers for import HRC have been reported in the range of €500-530/mt CFR, depending on the origin, down by €10/mt week on week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-Indonesia HRC offers in southern Europe, which have been voiced at €500/mt CFR, against 505-515/mt CFR last week, but, according to sources, offers at €490/mt CFR and below could still be possible for large-volume orders. “The problem for Indonesia is not only CBAM but also a potential dumping measure, that may come,” an EU trader said.
“Because of unclear CBAM rules, we have basically stopped import activities,” a market insider told SteelOrbis. However, some sources believe that Turkey remains one of the few viable alternatives, offering December deliveries, but safeguard quotas remain a concern after third quarter allocations were quickly exhausted. In particular, ex-Turkey HRC offers have been voiced at €520-530/mt CFR, duty paid, down by €10/mt on the higher end of the range week on week.
Furthermore, ex-India HRC offers have settled at €520-530/mt CFR for November shipment, which means CBAM will surely apply, so no one will take this risk.
It is worth mentioning that the uncertainty is set to deepen further. On October 7, the European Commission is expected to unveil a new legal proposal on trade measures for the steel sector. The plan aims to replace the current safeguard system, which expires in mid-2026, with a more permanent mechanism. According to reports, the Commission wants to nearly halve tariff-rate quotas and impose duties of around 50 percent on imports above these reduced quotas, aligning EU rules more closely with those in the US and Canada. The initiative reflects mounting concerns over global overcapacity, particularly from subsidized Chinese production, against the backdrop of weak European demand. While steelmakers broadly support tougher protection, importers and downstream industries warn of higher costs.
The package could also extend to aluminium, scrap exports, and adjustments to CBAM. Once published, the proposal will need approval from both the European Parliament and member states, where opinions remain divided.
With these regulatory shifts looming and CBAM obligations still unclear, buyers are adopting a cautious stance, leaving mills under pressure to secure orders and the import market largely on hold.