The rebar production outlook in China in the next few years is negative. Chinese rebar production in 2013 may be at least 185 million metric tons versus only about 6 million metric tons in the United States. However, it could fall back to about 160 million metric tons by 2016 due to: a) the increased use of higher-strength rebar that's about 20 percent more efficient to use than the lower-grade product that's still being produced by many of the smaller mills; and b) a decline in China's residential construction activity that in 2013 has risen probably to unsustainably high levels - i.e., perhaps 5.9 billion square meters of new housing, largely apartments, under construction by year-end of 2013.
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