South American economic overview - August 23, 2007

Thursday, 23 August 2007 13:30:56 (GMT+3)   |  
       

Argentina:

GDP: + 8.0% Q1

Consumer Prices: +8.6% as of July for the past twelve months; + 9.3% so far in 2007. The July rate came in unexpectedly low at 0.5%. Critics of the government point to the changes in the methodology of the statistics agency which keeps the rates unrealistically low. This is especially important since Argentina is in the middle of an election campaign. Furthermore, private groups claim the government understates the number of people living below the poverty level by at least 500,000.

Industrial Production: + 0.3% in June. The government expects to lift the electricity cutbacks in early September.

Unemployment: 9.8% in Q1

Trade Balance: + $11.2 billion as of June for the last twelve months

Currency: Peso 3.15 to US$1 as of Aug 15 (Peso 3.08 to US$1 last year)

Steel Production: 356,000 mt in July, a decrease of 26.0% over last year. Year-to-date 2007, 2.948 million mt were produced, or 10.9% less than last year

Brazil:

GDP: + 4.3% in Q1; finance ministry officials issued a forecast of 5.0% growth for 2007.

Consumer Prices: + 3.7% for the twelve months up to July (3.5% last year). For July alone the increase was a very modest 0.24%.

Industrial Production: + 6.6% in June

Unemployment: 9.7% in June

Trade Balance: + $45.0 billion in July for the last twelve months. In July exports climbed to a record $14.1 billion but imports also increased to a record $10.8 billion.

Currency: Real 1.99 to US$1 as of August 15 (Real 2.13 to US$1 last year)

Steel Production: 2.869 million mt in July, or 5.3% over last year. In the first seven months, 19.196 million mt were produced, or 11.6% more than last year.

Chile:

GDP: + 6.1% in June; growth was stimulated by strong exports and high copper prices, as well as strong consumer demand and increased government spending.

Consumer Prices: + 3.8% July (3.0% last year); the increase for the month was a sharp 1.1% from June and contributed to the Central Bank's decision to increase the overnight benchmark lending rate to 5.50%.

Industrial Production: +6.7% in June

Unemployment: 6.9% in June

Trade Balance: + $25.5 billion as of June for the last twelve months

Copper Price: US$6,950.00 per mt as of August 17; Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, announced that output fell 11.0% in Q2. Aging mines are less productive and contract workers had gone out on a strike. Total output was 422,000 mt compared to 476,000 mt in Q2 2006.

Currency: Peso 5.23 to US$1 as of August 15 (Peso 5.36 to US$1 last year)

Venezuela:

GDP: + 8.9% in Q2, down from + 9.1% in Q1 and + 9.4% in Q2 2006. Government spending has slowed down after surging 45% last year. In the first five months of this year, government spending increased only 11.8% over last year. The budget deficit as of May was $203 million.

Consumer Prices: + 17.2% in July (+19.4% in June, + 18.1% in July of last year); consumer spending from January to May was up by 39% over last year.

Industrial Production: + 10.0% in April

Unemployment: 8.0% in Q2

Trade Balance: + $28.2 billion in Q1; preliminary numbers for Q2 show that exports of non-oil products fell 8.2% to $16.8 billion whereas imports increased 38% to a record $10.9 billion. Exports of crude oil fell to $15.1 billion in Q2 from $16.6 billion a year earlier. According to a study of the University of Miami, Venezuela subsidized oil shipments to Cuba to the tune of $3.4 billion last year and it may well top $4.0 billion this year.

Currency: Bolivar 2,150 to US$1 as of Aug. 15 (Bolivar 2,650 to US$1 last year); the "unregulated" rate now stands at Bolivar 4,530 to US$1. It is estimated that up to 15% of imports are based on this rate.

Steel Production: 407,000 mt in July or 8.5% less than last year. In the first seven months of 2007, 2.964 million mt were produced, or 1.9% ahead of last year.