Latin American economic overview - October 10, 2006

Tuesday, 10 October 2006 10:59:08 (GMT+3)   |  
       

Argentina: GDP: + 7.9% in Q2 (change on year ago) Industrial Production: + 7.6% year on year in month of August Consumer Prices: + 10.4% in the 12 months up to the end of September - a one-year low. However, monthly inflation was at 0.9% in September, up from 0.6% in August Trade Balance: + $11.3 billion in the 12 months up to the end of August Current Account Balance: + $7.4 billion for the 12 months up to the end of August Currency: Peso 3.10 to US$1 October 4 (Peso 2.92 to US$1 a year ago) Steel Production: 464,000 mt in August (almost unchanged from August 2005). In the first eight months of 2006, 3,767,000 mt were produced, 4.7% up on the same period of 2005 Brazil: GDP: + 1.2% year on year in Q2. The forecast for 2006 is for a disappointing 3.1% Industrial Production: + 3.2% year on year in month of August Consumer Prices: + 3.8% year on year in month of August. The inflation rate slowed to 3.7% for the twelve-month period up to mid-September Trade Balance: + $46.3 billion for the 12 months up to the end of September Current Account Balance: $13.8 billion in the last 12 months up to the end of August Currency: Real 2.17 to US$1 as of October 4 (Real 2.28 to US$1 a year ago) Automotive Vehicle Production: 203,043 units in September, + 10% over last year Steel Production: 2.812 million mt in August. For the first eight months of 2006, the figure was 20.015 million mt which was 4.9% less than the same time period of 2005 Chile: GDP: + 2.7% year on year in the month of August. This was the slowest pace in three years and was in large part caused by the Codelco copper mine strike. The yearly growth for 2006 could fall to under 5% Industrial Production: + 1.2% year on year in month of August Consumer Prices: + 2.8% year on year in month of September. The monthly inflation rate in September was 0% while in August it was at an annual rate of 2.8% - a 15-month low Trade Balance: + $18.5 billion for the 12 months up to the end of August Current Account: + $2.2 billion in the 12 months up to the end of Q2 Copper Price: $3,380 / lb for delivery in December, up 62% for the year Currency: Peso 535 to US$1 as of October 4 (Peso 528 to US$1 a year ago) Steel Production: 140,000 mt in August (estimated). The figure was 1.080 million mt for the first eight months of 2006, almost identical to the same period last year Venezuela: GDP: soaring oil revenues, government spending and consumer demand make for a solid growth rate. 9.9% in Q1, 9.2% in Q2 and an estimated 9.0% for Q3 (all figures are year on year) Industrial Production: + 14.3% year on year in month of June Consumer Prices: + 15.3% (!!) year on year in month of September. The inflation rate for the year is expected to be around 15% Trade Balance: + $37.2 billion in the 12 months up to the end of Q2 Current Account Balance: +$29.5 billion in the 12 months up to the end of Q2 Currency: Bolivar 2,807 to US$1 October 4 (Bolivar 2,799 to US$1 a year ago) Steel production: 380,000 mt in August (estimated). For the first eight months of 2006, the figure was 3.225 million mt (slightly over the 3.177 million mt of the same period last year).

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