Global trade expected to grow by 8.5%
The World Trade Organization statistics show that the volume of global trade is expected to grow by 8.5% in real terms by the end of 2004 despite the sharp rise in oil prices. This reflects a significant improvement over 2003.
In 2005, the price hikes for oil and other commodities may reduce the growth in trade and overall output; however the vigorous trade expansion in many countries in 2004 is expected to offset the slowdown.
The vigorous trade expansion recorded in the first half of 2004 will provide adequate momentum to raise global trade volume by 8.5%.
The higher oil prices will not impact the growth in world trade negatively due to strong trade growth in
China, Latin America and
Africa.
Japan also showed stronger than expected economic recovery.
In 2003, global merchandise trade reached $7.3 trillion with a rise of 16%. In real terms, merchandise trade rose by 4.5% in 2003 after the 3% increase in 2002.