On March 23, WTO economists released their annual assessment of global trade, forecasting that the collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades will drive exports down by roughly nine percent in volume terms in 2009, the biggest such contraction since the Second World War.
The contraction in developed countries will be particularly severe with exports falling by 10 percent in 2009, while in developing countries, which are far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some two to three percent this year, the WTO economists say.
According to the WTO assessment, available monthly data for most major traders show large drops in merchandise exports and imports through the first two months of 2009. An exception to this pattern of decline in trade flows is discernible for certain economies in Asia, where positive monthly import growth numbers were recorded for China and also for Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam. While this trend is only for a single month of data, and should therefore be interpreted cautiously, it could be evidence of slowing decline and perhaps a "bottoming out" of negative trade growth trends.
WTO director-general Pascal Lamy said, "Trade can be a potent tool in lifting the world from these economic doldrums. In London, G20 leaders will have a unique opportunity to unite in moving from pledges to action and refrain from any further protectionist measure which will render global recovery efforts less effective."