The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts that global apparent steel use will increase by 13.1 percent to 1.27 billion mt in 2010 after contracting by 6.6 percent in 2009, according to its short range outlook (SRO) for 2010 and 2011, published on October 4. This represents an improvement of 35 million mt over the April SRO for 2010 and exceeds the pre-crisis peak of 1.22 billion mt in 2007. In 2011, it is forecast that world steel demand will grow by 5.3 percent to reach a record 1.34 billion mt.
The worldsteel economics committee met in Rio de Janeiro in September 2010 to discuss the October 2010 SRO.
According to the report produced after the meeting, China's apparent steel use in 2010 is expected to increase by 6.7 percent to 579 million mt after a strong increase of 24.8 percent in 2009. In 2011, the growth rate will further slow to 3.5 percent with a weak real estate sector and the phasing out of stimulus packages. While the forecast for China is for a fairly low growth rate compared to other countries, its apparent steel use in 2011 will be 42 percent above the 2007 level. China will account for about 45 percent of world apparent steel use in 2011.
Commenting, Daniel Novegil, chairman of the worldsteel economics committee, said, "Our first SRO forecast after the economic crisis in 2009 suggested an 8.4 percent growth in steel demand in 2010. We have now revised this figure up to 13.1 percent. This improved outlook is due to a better than expected forecast for the developed economies particularly the EU, NAFTA and the CIS, as well as the continued strong rebound in most emerging economies. This suggests a steady and stable steel recovery, and our current forecast does not foresee a double dip recession as feared by some."