Speaking at the SteelOrbis 2017 Spring Conference & 76th IREPAS Meeting being held in Budapest on March 26-28, Thomas Elford from Stemcor, the chairman of the traders committee, commented on China’s capacity reduction, saying that he has always been skeptical of its capacity reduction numbers, though he added that the situation feels more under control than it did in the second half of 2014 and the first half of 2015, with Chinese exports now declining. He said that China’s capacity/production cuts have more to do with demand. Regarding China’s effect on the rest of the world, Mr. Elford said, “When China is strong, the world is strong, when China is weak, everybody is in a panic”, adding that the market has become very China-centric.
Commenting on the preliminary antidumping duty imposed by the US on rebar imports, Mr. Elford said that the US will continue to import rebar. Regarding the possible outcomes of Trump’s announcement of plans for $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, the committee chairman said that this does not constitute real demand for the time being and these projects will take time to become a reality. He also said that he does not believe the infrastructure spending plan will have a huge positive impact on the global steel markets.
Mr. Elford also remarked that, during the discussions held by the traders committee, the probability of a wire rod shortage in the EU came up, in response to which Kim Marti from CELSA said that wire rod shortage is not an issue, indicating that the majority of the mills in southern Europe have been forced to export because of the lack of domestic demand, while adding that the mills are fully covered in terms of supply and can easily shift supply to their domestic market if needed.