During the panel session of the SteelOrbis Spring 2024 Conference & 90th IREPAS Meeting held in Berlin on April 28-30, F. D. Baysal from Seba International, the chairman of the traders committee, stated that there is demand globally but that it will be supplied locally, adding that ongoing trade tensions, global conflicts and political instability have changed trade routes, resulting in regionalization.
Looking at the other factors that lead to regionalization, Mr. Baysal expressed the view that the EU’s safeguard measures will be extended for another two years and that its quota volume adjustment will be minimal if any. Regarding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), he stated that it will put pressure on other countries, especially on blast furnace-based producers.
Remarking that Turkey’s export markets have been limited due to the US safeguard measures, the EU quota restrictions and the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the chairman of the traders committee stated that there are still some export opportunities for the country, including Syria, Iraq, eastern Europe, Africa and possibly Yemen. In addition, noting that the shipping crisis in the Red Sea has affected freight rates and container shipments a lot more than bulk shipments, the shipments had to be shifted from containers to bulk, leading to additional costs.
Looking at China, Baysal said that the low steel demand in the country amid cancelled infrastructure projects has resulted in an increase in the country’s exports, with China dominating the global market with its lower prices and higher quality of steel, leading the strong competition. He also cited the Chinese Metallurgical Industry Institute’s prediction for a 1.7 percent drop in China’s steel demand in 2024, after a 3.3 percent decline in 2023, while further noting that China’s steel export volume increased by 14 percent year on year in the first quarter, though the value of its steel exports during this period was down by 20 percent year on year.
