According to local media reports, Alexei Sentyurin, president of the Russian Steel Association, stated that the country’s steel exports are projected to grow by 19 percent in 2025, reaching approximately 24 million mt, up from 20 million mt in 2024.
The upward revision follows the abolition of export duties from January, which has made Russian steel more competitive abroad. At the start of the year, the association had only forecast a 2.5 percent increase, but the improved external trade conditions prompted a significant adjustment.
Falling domestic demand
According to the association, while exports are strengthening, the outlook for domestic steel consumption is markedly weaker. The association reaffirmed its forecast that Russian steel demand will fall by 14 percent, or 6 million mt, to 38 million mt in 2025 - the lowest level since 2011.
The decline reflects the ongoing slowdown of steel consumption in key industrial sectors, led by the automotive industry with a fall of 36.4 percent, mechanical engineering with a 30 percent drop, the energy sector with a 19.4 percent fall, and the construction sector with a 10.5 percent reduction.
Production outlook
Total steel production in Russia is expected to fall from 61 million mt in 2024 to 58 million mt in 2025. The association attributes the drop to reduced domestic demand and the prioritization of export-oriented production chains.