On Novermber 6, Qi Xiangdong, the retired deputy secretary general of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), said that in the first three quarters of the current year Chinese finished steel exports were 33.86 million mt, up around 116.73 percent year on year. He went on to add that China's finished steel export volume in July this year was down 20.03 percent month on month, in August it declined a further 37.94 percent month on month, while in September it was down 21.86 percent compared with the average monthly figure for the first half of the year.
Mr. Qi stated that China's finished steel export situation in the fourth quarter this year depends on four factors:
The first factor is the worldwide economic situation and international demand. Viewing the situation in the first three quarters, the world economy is recovering but there are obstacles and complexities.
The second factor is output and whether a supply-and-demand balance can be reached. In the first half of the year, there was a rapid increase in world steel output levels, with capacity utilization rates reaching 80 percent. Crude steel output reached historical highs but is expected to fall back in the fourth quarter.
The third factor is exchange rate fluctuation. China has become more flexible on its currency. The US dollar has depreciated and the Chinese currency has appreciated. This makes it more difficult for Chinese steel exporters to get US dollars. Export profit margins require further observation.
The fourth factor is international protectionism and tariff barriers. In 2010, Mr. Qi said, some countries have violated WTO regulations by implementing unfair measures such as antidumping and countervailing duties against China.