During the "New Horizons in Global Steel Markets" 13th Annual Conference organized by SteelOrbis in Istanbul on November 8, Başak Turgut, marketing and sales coordinator at Turkey-based Oyak Mining and Metallurgy Group, commented on the recent issues in the global steel industry and in the Turkish economy, while also sharing her expectations. Mrs. Turgut stated that “both the best and the worst happened in global trade between the third quarter of 2017 and the third quarter of 2018”, while the global economy continued to grow, with the growth rate near the average of the last 30 years.
Mrs. Turgut stated that her outlook for 2019 is positive, with Turkey entering a better period as the high volatility of the Turkish lira against the US dollar has eased. As regards China, which previously had negatively impacted the steel exports of Turkey and other countries by adopting an aggressive pricing strategy in the global market in the 2015-2016 period, she pointed out that Chinese suppliers are not expected to make things difficult in the near future. “Currently, Chinese producers are more controlled and balanced in terms of their strategies for production and sales, while the Chinese authorities are considering subsidies as an important tool to support their industry. Also, the Chinese government is providing more liquidity to the market and has announced high-cost investment plans. Under these circumstances, I do not think that Chinese suppliers will be a problem for global trade in the coming period. Besides, countries are taking steps in order to protect their own industries and to ensure economic stability,” she said.
As for the trade measures taken by the US, Canada and Europe, Mrs. Turgut stated that the US government’s decision to prevent steel imports from China has resulted in improved trade relations between Asian countries, including China, India, Japan and Indonesia. She said that the trading volume among these countries, which was at 57 percent in the early 2000s is now near 70 percent amid the import duties and quotas which came into force this year. Meanwhile, the global trade is in a period of change and Turkey should also monitor this process closely, according to Mrs. Turgut.
Lastly, she stated that the Turkish economy has not contracted longer than three successive quarters and that a process of improvement is expected in the second quarter of 2019.