A sector which will continue to grow but which will undergo profound changes - this is the outlook for the international scrap market over the coming years garnered from the discussion entitled ’Ferrous scrap: The international panorama', including the participation of Calum Baker (CRU and Kaufmann & Sons), Veysel Yayan (secretary general of the Turkish Iron and Steel Producers' Association) and Tatyana Manko (Metal Courier), and held during the Metalriciclo exposition at Montichiari, near Brescia on 13-15 September.
"Scrap consumption on an international level is growing - said Mr Baker - In the last seven years it has increased by 132 million mt and it will continue to increase". However, there will be a change in the flows of material. "China will reduce its dependence on imports - Baker continued - thanks to more efficient collection and an improved use of furnaces". The CIS, on the other hand, will drastically cut its exports due to the increase in internal consumption. Furthermore, in the coming years, worldwide scrap collection levels will rise, reaching 625 million mt in 2011; meanwhile, after peaking in 2007-2008 , prices will drop slightly but will continue at high levels.
Veysel Yayan focused on the situation in Turkey in his analysis. Turkey is currently going through a positive period, with both consumption and investments increasing. Demand for scrap will also increase. This last factor could end up putting Turkey in difficulty in the long term, since the country currently depends hugely on CIS imports which seem destined to dry up in the future.
Mr Yayan's view was also supported by Tatyana Manko. According to the Ukrainian expert, the trend in the Russian steel industry in the upcoming years will cause exports to drop below five million mt per annum. Ukraine will experience a similar situation, and is expected to become a net importer of scrap within a few years.