During his speech at the SteelOrbis 2019 Fall Conference & 81st IREPAS Meeting held in Düsseldorf on September 22-24, Kim Marti, commercial director of Spanish steel producer Celsa, said that the global economy is expected to grow 3.2 percent in 2019, 0.4 percent less than in 2018, and 0.3 percent less than expected in January 2019. For 2020, growth is expected to be at 3.5 percent, which is a positive, Mr. Marti said.
Commenting on construction, the Celsa official said that the expansion in advanced economies will be fairly sluggish in 2019, while South and Southeast Asia will be the fastest growing region in 2019-23, with an average annual growth of four percent. He added that there will be sustained recoveries in construction outputs in the Middle East and Africa, as well as in Latin America. However, weakness in Turkey will pull down the pace of regional expansion in eastern Europe.
Turning to the steel industry, Mr. Marti pointed out that since 2015 China’s long steel exports decreased at a faster rate than its flat steel exports. During the first six months of the current year, China exported 19.43 million mt of flat products, up 5.7 percent, while its long steel exports amounted to 8.3 million mt, down 17.6 percent, both year on year.
According to Marti, long products consumption in 2019 is estimated to reach 851 million mt. In the first half of 2019, long steel consumption was 10 percent higher than the same period in 2018, amounting to 444 million mt, with Asia accounting for 68 percent of total consumption. The only decrease in long steel consumption in the first half was recorded in Turkey and Germany with nine percent and eight percent declines respectively. In the given period, rebar consumption reached 199 million mt, the biggest rebar consumption total in the last 10 years for a first half, with almost 70 percent of consumption happening in Asia. According to the estimated rebar consumption of 381 million mt for 2019, rebar consumption for the year will have increased by 54 percent compared to ten years ago. Mr. Marti indicated that rebar production and consumption seems to be balanced, while the main gap comes from the CIS and Turkey, adding that local and regional supply seems to be the most logical strategy.
The Celsa official concluded by saying that the mid-year update shows a 2.4 percent growth forecast for long steel consumption in 2019; however, mounting uncertainties and the recent raw material price drop could soften this growth. Meanwhile, rebar consumption is expected to grow two percent to 390 million mt in 2019.