Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has stated in its latest report that the Middle East has become a major hub for lower-emissions iron production, largely due to widespread adoption of direct reduced iron (DRI) technology. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region are now reshaping global supply dynamics and creating significant uncertainty.
Steelmaking operations in Iran have been heavily impacted, with several major facilities reportedly damaged. These disruptions are expected to constrain crude steel output and effectively remove part of the global DRI-electric arc furnace production capacity from the market.
Strait of Hormuz crisis disrupts supply chains
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is intensifying supply chain challenges across the region. Rising freight and insurance costs, shipping disruptions, and shortages of direct reduction-grade pellets are tightening supply, forcing steel producers to seek alternatives.
As DRI supply becomes constrained, steelmakers are increasingly turning to scrap to maintain production. This shift is contributing to rising global scrap prices and adding further pressure to raw material markets.
Pellet supply chains face additional strain
Producers in Bahrain and Oman are struggling to secure iron ore concentrate, particularly from Brazil.
Shipments are being redirected to Asian markets, reducing feedstock availability for DRI plants in the region.
Semi-finished steel market tightens
Iran’s effective exit from the market is also impacting semi-finished steel supply. The country accounts for around 11 percent of global semis trade, meaning its absence is tightening global supply conditions.
Geopolitical instability, rising energy costs, and financial risks are expected to delay investment in low-emission steel projects. Key projects in Saudi Arabia’s Ras Al-Khair zone, backed by companies such as Essar, Vale, Aramco-Baosteel-PIF, and Tosyalı, are now facing increased risk.
Alternative suppliers gain momentum
The disruption is prompting steelmakers in Europe and Asia to reassess sourcing strategies, with reliability becoming a key factor. Brazil is well positioned due to its strong iron ore base, while Australia is emerging as a potential alternative supplier, with several green iron projects under development.
Although large-scale projects require time to develop, the current crisis is accelerating strategic shifts in sourcing. The global low-emission iron market is increasingly moving toward diversification, with supply security becoming as important as cost and emissions performance.
