According to the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, in April this year China's crude steel output amounted to 55.403 million mt, up 27 percent year on year. Thus, daily crude steel output for the month may be calculated as 1.83 million mt.
Speaking during a discussion at the "Hexun Forum: Focus on Iron Ore Negotiation Problem" on May 12, Dai Guoqing, former vice director of Chinese steelmaker Shougang Group's Development and Research Institute, stated that if China's daily crude steel output in May maintains the daily level seen in April, this year Chinese crude steel output will reach 660 million mt, which is 100 million mt more than last year.
In response to one participant who said that China's peak demand for crude steel could rise as high as 800 million mt, Mr. Dai said that if China's demand for crude steel is around 700-800 million mt, at the present growth rate in domestic steel production this level of demand will be met in two years' time." He added that, if Chinese steel industry growth stops, this would have repercussions for the global futures market and the spot markets.
Xu Zhongbo, professor of University of Science and Technology Beijing, as well as Lu Yeshou, director of the Investigation and Research Department of the China Mining Association, as well as Dai Guoqing, all estimated China's actual crude steel demand to be 500 million mt.