Brazil Steel Institute (IABr) has revised its forecast regarding the expected decline in Brazil's steel imports in 2013, from a drop of 14.4 percent to a fall of just 0.5 percent. Thus, Brazil's steel imports are expected to total 3.8 million mt for the current year. The main reasons for the revision are the highest monthly import volume recorded in October this year since 2010 and the weaker-than-expected dollar.
In the first 10 months of the year, Brazil's indirect steel imports (including goods such as machines and motor vehicles) increased 17.4 percent to 4.7 million metric tons. Accordingly, the country's total steel imports in 2013 are exprected to amount 5.7 million metric tons, constituting a new annual record.
In the first 10 months of this year, Brazil's crude steel production volume is expected to be 34.5 million mt, remaining stable year on year. Meanwhile, steel exports of the country are expected to fall 14.8 percent year on year to 8.4 million mt, reflecting further overcapacity in the international market and the loss of competitiveness of Brazilian products due high costs.
The institute's predictions for 2014 are for a fall in imports due to possible destocking, increased exports due to a mild recovery in the international scene, and increased production of crude steel. However, domestic sales are expected to grow 4.4 percent and apparent consumption by 3.2 percent year on year. On the other hand, the possible reduction in automobile production (safety standards will become mandatory) is expected to offset by higher consumption in construction.