With Turkey continuing to conclude deep sea scrap bookings this week, ex-EU scrap prices have now settled with two ex-Netherlands deal surfacing in the market. SteelOrbis previously reported a deal closed at $346/mt CFR, saying that the level is in line with the ex-Germany booking done earlier.
The most recent booking from the Netherlands supports the idea of the stability of prices and was closed by an Izmir-based producer for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $347/mt CFR. This cargo will be shipped in February. As a result, ex-EU scrap prices have now settled in the range of $347-350/mt CFR.
However, the depreciation of the euro is once again raising questions. Following the US FED’s decision to cut its interest rates by 25 base points, adding that they are only planning two cuts in rates in 2025, the euro depreciated to 1.03 against the dollar. This rate was last seen in November 2022. The depreciation of the euro gives European scrap suppliers room to reduce their offers to Turkey. While 2024 is drawing to a close and the holiday season in the scrap supplier regions is approaching fast, the expectations for ex-US scrap above $355/mt CFR are now questioned. “Turkish mills were already resisting the slight upward movement. Now we will have to monitor what the Europeans will do. They can make a move now or they can get out of the market and say they will decide after the holidays,” a source commented today, December 20. Meanwhile, the expectations for the local US scrap market are mixed for the January scrap buy-cycle. With the most recent deals closed from the EU taken into account and due to the recent developments in the euro-dollar exchange rate, SteelOrbis has revised its ex-US scrap price to $353/mt CFR, down $2/mt from the previous estimated levels, amid the lack of a confirmed deal.
A German sub-collector reported today that they are getting ready for the holidays, have stopped trading and will wait for 2025. “However, there are big economic problems in Germany, France and Italy. Scrap consumption in the EU is not expected to recover sharply in January. The manufacturing segment is still slow and there is bad news coming out of every segment. ThyssenKrupp’s layoffs were discussed a lot but there are similar developments for Ford and Bosch too. We do not expect domestic scrap prices to move up in January, and maybe not even in February.”
Another indication for the coming year has come from President-elect Donald Trump, who has advised Europe to reduce its trade deficit with the US. According to international news agencies, Trump stated, “The EU must buy more American oil and gas or the new administration will impose tariffs on European imports.” Trump previously said that US will impose a 25 percent tariff against Canadian and Mexican goods and services when he takes the office.