US scrap pricing for November remained unchanged this week at sideways to recent lower October settlement prices, as continuing mill maintenance operations is expected to further cull demand for scrap next month, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
And while finished steel demand remains unremarkable as the US and global economies struggle with tariffs and limited growth, insiders said scrap flows into US Midwest and East Coast supply yards remain brisk, with inventory levels said to be adequate for now.
“There’s very little talk right now about November scrap,” said one mill-based scrap insider. “But, it’s feeling very sideways.” “I’ve heard quiet markets, and a sideways month [for November]” said another Midwest scrap insider. “I’ve got nothing new this week on the November outlook,” said still another New York State-based scrap supplier. “Nothing’s being talked about just yet for November, so I’d say sideways,” said a final Midwest scrap insider.
During the recent October scrap supply negotiations, insiders told SteelOrbis that a combination of maintenance activities, low export requirements for US scrap and adequate supply caused scrap prices to decline $10-20/gt ($892-17.86/nt or $9.83-19.69/mt) across the board versus September settles.
Based on a current sideways to October settlement, US Midwest prime busheling scrap -which settled on average $20/gt less during October negotiations- could settle for November in the US Ohio Valley at $395-420/gt ($401-427/mt) on a delivered basis, while while shredded scrap, which saw a recent $10/gt monthly decline, could settle sideways near $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt), delivered. Ohio Valley HMS grades which moved $10/gt lower in October, could trade flat near $315-335/gt ($320-340/mt), while P&S scrap, which settled on average also $10/gt less in US domestic Midwest markets, could trade for November near $351-361/gt ($357-367/mt).
In the US Northeast, prime busheling grade material could trade flat near $340-360/gt ($345-365/mt), following October’s $20/gt delivered decline, while shredded grades are currently seen steady near $315-325/gt ($320-330/mt) following the recent $10/gt October price dip. P&S and HMS grades could likely finish flat to the $10-15/gt lower October delivered price settles reported near $280-290/gt ($285-295/mt), and $295-310/gt ($300-315/mt), scrap insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
Insiders tell SteelOrbis scrap pricing might remain little changed through the end of 2025 as a result of continuing 50 percent steel tariffs and languishing local and export finished steel demand. And while the majority still expect flat pricing next month, one contact offered a different perspective.
“I think what we’re seeing now, we’ll see through the end of the year,” quipped one Midwest-based scrap insider to SteelOrbis this past week. Another said, “I have heard some (suppliers) say pricing for November could be up, as many (US hot roll mills) could be post maintenance, [finished with maintenance] and the Turks didn’t buy billets from China this month.”