November US ferrous scrap pricing is seen settling sideways across all scrap grades, the result of this week’s monthly buy-cycle supply negotiations, market insiders told SteelOrbis. And, while November pricing was expected to settle sideways, a stable-to-October price level is seen by some insiders as a sign of a more bullish market sentiment developing versus October, when prices moved $10-20/gt lower than its equivalent September pricing across all scrap grades.
For several weeks prior to this week’s monthly supply negotiations, insiders told SteelOrbis they expected a larger number of US mills would likely emerge as scrap buyers this month versus last, as a growing number of downed mills began to emerge from yearly fall maintenance operations. Insiders also said local scrap inventories -especially prime grades of Midwest busheling scrap- at local supply yards remained “more than adequate” since peaking during the August-September period. Inflows were also reported to be sufficient, they said.
During October scrap supply negotiations, insiders told SteelOrbis a combination of maintenance activities, low export requirements for US scrap abroad, and adequate supply caused scrap prices to dip $10-20/gt ($9.84-19.69/mt) across the board versus September settles.
We’re seeing sideways settles across the board,” remarked one Midwest mill scrap buyer. “Everything right now seems to be in balance.”
“November scrap prices will settle sideways at the mills and through the publications,” said another Midwest scrap insider to SteelOrbis.
“Yes, everything has settled sideways,” confirmed a final Southern US mill scrap buyer.
Based on a sideways to October settlement, US Midwest prime busheling scrap -which settled on average $20/gt less during October negotiations- could settle for November in the US Ohio Valley flat at $395-420/gt ($401-427/mt) on a delivered basis, while while shredded scrap, which saw a $10/gt decline for October, could settle near $365-370/gt ($371-376/mt) delivered. Ohio Valley HMS grades which moved $10/gt lower in October, could trade flat at $315-335/gt ($320-340/mt), while P&S scrap, which settled on average $10/gt less, could see a November settle at $351-361/gt ($357-367/mt).
In the US Northeast, prime busheling grade material is expected to settle flat at $340-360/gt ($345-365/mt), following October’s $20/gt delivered decline, while shredded grades are expected to settle near $315-325/gt ($320-330/mt) following the recent $10/gt October price dip. P&S and HMS grades could finish flat to the $10-15/gt lower October delivered price settles reported near $280-290/gt ($285-295/mt), and $295-310/gt ($300-315/mt), respectively, scrap insiders told SteelOrbis following supply negotiations this week.
