Weekly surveys of US scrap markets for next month indicate a mostly sideways sentiment for July, though a clear consensus remains problematic following sideways to May settles during June supply negotiations which concluded on June 5, market insiders told SteelOrbis this week.
“Everything settled sideways for June,” said one Midwest scrap insider, predicting another sideways to potentially higher early call for July scrap. “This was the earliest (monthly June) settle I can recall,” he added. “For July, the underlying current is at least sideways.”
Another insider predicted a likely lower July scrap sentiment, without indicating how much.
“I believe the July market will weaken with low demand, inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty and recessionary fears,” he said. “Not only scrap, but coils are headed down in my opinion,” he added. “$900 a ton for hot-rolled coil?” he questioned. “I see it more like $800/ton by September, or even lower if current conditions prevail.”
Still another Midwest scrap supplier indicated things were looking better from a sales perspective. “It’s very low key,” the supplier noticed. “Some out there think no change for the entire summer,” he added. “Others think there’s a possibility of up $20/gt on busheling and cut grades. For shred, the call is no change.”
One Midwest mill-based scrap buyer predicted a sideways to June call for July. “I think the call right now is sideways. Scrap is flowing well. End-user demand is not changing much, and markets remain in balance.”
Yet another Upper Midwest scrap supplier predicted a higher July settlement. “I’m hearing strong sideways for July,” he said. “Possibly higher.”
Based on a prevailing sideways to June July call, Midwest prime busheling scrap in the Ohio Valley might settle near $435-460/gt ($443-468/mt), while shredded might settle near $375-380/gt ($381-387/mt). Ohio Valley P&S and HMS grades could settle near $361-371/gt ($367-377/mt), and $325-345/gt ($330-387/mt), respectively, scrap insiders said.
In the US Northeast, a sideways expectation for July might net a busheling price settle near $380-400/gt ($387-407/mt), while shredded grades could settle near $325-335/gt ($330-342/mt). P&S and HMS grades could settle near $295-305/gt ($300-310/mt), and 305-320/gt ($310-325/mt), respectively, insiders said.
In the export scrap market, insiders tell SteelOrbis Turkey needs to buy another 20-25 deep sea scrap cargoes for shipment in July. “It is already June 11. Turkey’s time is decreasing. The mills will be back soon to conclude bookings,” one player commented, mentioning subdued trade with the recent holiday.
