US rebar market - Will domestic prices rise?

On the back of strong demand and tight supply, offering prices for import rebar have increased another $0.25 cwt. ($5.50 /mt or $5 /nt) since last week. Import rebar offers now range from $22.75 cwt. to $23.75 cwt. ($502 /mt to $524 /mt or $455 /nt to $475 /nt). With negligible competitive offers coming from usual rebar exporters in South America and Northern Europe, Turkey is still the only country exporting significant quantities of rebar to the US at competitive prices. Being the market leader in this area has given Turkish mills the leverage to raise prices and to put some restrictions on the product mix, as they are now offering more 40 foot and less #3 sizes in order to increase productivity. Turkish home and export markets for rebar are strongly up, giving momentum for prices rise further. Taiwan has been providing some rebar offers to the US, but their prices are no longer competitive, possibly due to rising billet prices. Mexico has also been a steady supplier to the US market, but their prices are closer to domestic levels. Mexico is currently railing to customers for around $25.00 cwt. ($551 /mt or $500 /nt) delivered to the West Coast. Domestic offers still range from $24.25 cwt. to $25.25 cwt. ($535 /mt to $557 /mt or $485 /nt to $505 /nt) FOB mill. Extras change from one domestic producer to another and vary depending on bar size, grade, and length. The smallest rebar size, #3 (9.5 mm) fetches the highest extra. The market now awaits the next week's price announcement from Nucor. Scrap prices have been stable but they can certainly go up with the price. The mills are extremely full, but on the other hand, they do not want to lose market share to imports. However, they may have realized that imports have gone up by $30 /nt in the last couple of months and domestic prices haven't. There is hardly any need to protect the home turf right now, so come next week, we may see a modest price increase for domestic rebars as well.