Ex-China billet prices have softened over the past week, following declines in futures prices and given the still poor fundamentals in the local market in China. However, as there are some signs of price stabilization, Southeast Asian billet importers have started to show more interest in negotiations.
The SteelOrbis reference price for import billet in Southeast Asia has declined by $7/mt on the lower end and by $5/mt on the higher end over the past week to $440-450/mt CFR.
Most offers for Chinese 5SP billets have been at $445-450/mt CFR in the Philippines this week, down by $5-10/mt over the past week. “$445/mt CFR may be workable, but there are no confirmed deals yet,” a Manila-based source said. The previous lowest deal price was at $438/mt CFR in mid-October, but market sources believe that prices will not fall to such a low level any time soon.
Today, November 6, rebar futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained 0.4 percent, and, though this is a very small increase after four successive days of declines, market sources believe that, with the current rather high raw material prices, steel prices will not drop much further in the near future. “The Chinese market is warmer today and it seems there is bigger support for debar consumption and some weak speculative buying returns,” a Chinese trader noted.
A deal for Chinese 3SP billet was done at $447/mt CFR in Thailand early this week, but, with an manganese extra of $2-3/mt, the base 3SP price is equivalent to $444-445/mt CFR in this deal. “Buyers were waiting for $435/mt CFR or less, but it seems there will be no lower price than $445/mt CFR this week and maybe next week,” a Bangkok-based source said.
In Indonesia, there have been no new deals, but buyers’ price ideas have been at around $440/mt CFR. Indonesian 3SP billet offers are at $450-452/mt CFR, still higher than Chinese prices.