Russian billet suppliers are out of the export markets, at least for now, as they have lost their price advantage in their major markets like Turkey, North Africa and the Gulf to China and some other Asian suppliers.
The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has settled at $475-480/mt FOB Black Sea with the midpoint down $5/mt on average over the past week. However, this level is indicative and such low prices may be available only from Donbass, the Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia, as it has been exempted from Russian export duty (4-7 percent) until the end of this year.
For Turkish customers, ex-Donbass billet is available at $500/mt CFR. “The Russian Federation is not competitive anymore so exports will be suspended. Donbass will maybe remain, but not Russian origin,” a trader told SteelOrbis. Previous ex-Russia billet sales to Turkey were at $515/mt CFR Turkish Black Sea coast, but the latest bids have all been below $500/mt CFR after ex-China deals to Turkey at $485-490/mt CFR. “I don’t see any deals for Turkish Black Sea buyers,” a source said.
In other major destinations, like Egypt and the GCC, Russian billet suppliers have also been less competitive. The lowest ex-Russia and ex-Donbass offers to the MENA region would be at $510-520/mt CFR, according to sources, though some mills are still voicing $525-530/mt CFR. At the same time, an offer for high-manganese billet from China has been heard at $498/mt CFR to the Gulf, which may translate to $490-493/mt CFR, excluding extras. In Egypt, Asian origin will also be rather cheap, at $500-510/mt CFR with extras, but “they bought a lot and are now chewing a bit. There are still challenges in getting US dollars in the country,” a trader said. An ex-Ukraine billet offer to Egypt was at $530/mt CFR effective.