Prices for ex-Asia billet have been rather stable compared to last week, and both sellers and buyers have been unwilling to do business ahead of the holidays. The outlook for January is cautiously positive with prices expected to remain stable in the worse scenario, and some rises are quite expected, market sources believe.
Ex-China billet reference price has remained stable at $430-435/mt FOB with most offers still remaining at $435-440/mt FOB. The Indonesian mill has slightly lowered its April shipment offer by $2/mt from late last week to $440/mt FOB. “Chinese offers are lower [than Indonesian], around $437-438/mt FOB, but no bookings for both,” a Singapore-based source said. Most buyers assess the workable level at not above $430/mt FOB.
By the end of the year, the Chinese market is expected to remain stable as both demand and supply will be reduced, but some hopes exist for January, and prices may go gradually up locally in case of demand improvement ahead of the Chinese New Year. “It is estimated that better demand will be seen in coming months, while steel output is stable... The export market is stable with most mills not having much interest to trade, considering straight fall of dollar. So, the focus of the market is on what will happen after January 1 with new export policy and clearer situation,” a Chinese trader noted.
Another large Chinese trader, which is among the top-5 in the country, said that he expects a rather stable trend in January for Chinese billet export market. “Yuan is stronger than we expected, so January will depend on whether demand can recover,” he said.
The trading of Asian billet in the GCC and in Turkey has remained very slow. Most offers for Chinese origin have been coming at $472-475/mt CFR for both destinations. “Tradable level here should be below $463/mt CFR,” a Saudi Arabia-based source said. In Turkey, the workable level is also stable at near $465/mt CFR.
In SE Asian import market, demand has also been subdued due to holidays and enough stocks at buyers’ side. Offers for 5SP billet to the Philippines have been at $455/mt CFR officially, but “those who needed to buy, already did it earlier in December. Now $450/mt CFR is the real market price, but no one is in the market,” a Manila-based source said.