Most players in the European Union’s long steel market are pessimistic for the remaining part of the year at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025, but some say they are convinced there will be a rebound in prices around the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026.
In the Italian market, rebar prices have fallen further week on week, and, while in the latest SteelOrbis report €240/mt ex-works base (€505/mt ex-works including regular extras) was only an occasional minimum, this week it has become the normal rebar selling price for standard volumes of 500-1,000 mt. Moreover, a source at an Italian producer also reported levels of €230/mt ex-works base (€495/mt ex-works including regular extras) for higher quantities, and even less for a special contract. Finally, another source has reported that some mills are planning to stop production for a few days, but this information has not been confirmed at the time of publication.
In the wire rod segment, no changes have reported compared to last week’s levels, and local prices in Italy are still being reported at €585-600/mt delivered and €570-585/mt delivered, respectively, for drawing and mesh quality wire rod. In Germany and Poland, on the other hand, sharp drops in sales prices have been reported by a major producer, and the consequences of this decision on the choices of other European mills will probably be seen in the coming weeks. The bearish trend, however, has become undeniable in all European markets. Consequently, the possibility of a price drop in Italy cannot be ruled out either.
On the export side, Italy has reported very weak demand for both rebar and wire rod, while a source at a steel mill in Greece said he is expecting a recovery in demand in the long export segment before the end of the year, ahead of the implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). A source at an Italian mill also said he believes that a rebound in export demand is possible around the end of this year and the beginning of next year, but he also underlined the cautious attitude of end-users when buying for 2026 deliveries, because "uncertainty is still very high, and it is dangerous to make long-term commitments".
Finally, the import segment is the only one that has shown signs of a price recovery. The increase in import demand for scrap in Turkey and the gradual strengthening of import price levels has led Turkish producers to increase their long steel sales prices, causing offers for imports to southern European ports to increase by around €5/mt week on week. As a result, import offers for rebar and wire rod from Turkey have been reported at €485-490/mt CFR and €490-495/mt CFR this week for late October and early November shipments, respectively.
€1 = $1.175 (European Central Bank, October 2)
