Southern European rebar prices have entered a very sharp negative trend since the end of the second quarter of 2007. A feeling of panic has been experienced in the southern European markets due to the traditional slowdown in the market at this time of the year along with the high stock levels. The total price decline from the end of May up to the present time stands at €80-90/mt ($110-124/mt) in Italy and Spain.
Currently, it would be difficult to say the market situation is good. In Italy everybody is just trying to conclude sales at the present time. This trend has had a negative effect on prices. The price level of rebar in the local Italian market is at around €440-465/mt ($603-637/mt) delivered to warehouse in northern Italy, excluding VAT. Prices are still unsettled and the base price range is very wide. Italian rebar export offers for North Africa are at €420-430/mt ($579-592/mt) FOB. Most producers are not considering making offers at the low side of this price range (€420/mt) for the time being. Italian producers seem to have an advantage in Algeria over their CIS counterparts with these offer levels.
The situation is almost the same in the Spanish and Portuguese domestic rebar markets. It is possible to find base prices as low as €285/mt ($393/mt) for AENOR-certificated rebar in Spain. The delivered-to-warehouse price for 12 mm AENOR-certificated rebar is at €505-510/mt ($696-702/mt), excluding VAT. The latest rebar prices in Portugal are at €455/mt ($627/mt) for cash payment. According to reports, it is possible to find prices €5-10/mt ($7-14/mt) lower than this price level.
There is a sign of hope in spite of the adverse situation experienced in southern Europe. The continuous softening in prices and the slowdown in imports are reducing the overall stock levels in southern Europe. In addition, Turkish producers consider that after the decline in scrap and in billet prices comes to an end, the decrease in long prices may follow the same trend and also come to a halt. After the feeling of panic dissipates in southern Europe, the market dynamics may see a positive turnaround. Due to the falling stock levels and the increase in the Euro-US Dollar exchange rate, the fact that customers have the possibility of concluding import bookings for September shipments before the holiday period may have a positive effect on domestic southern European prices in September.