Global View on Billet: Sentiments worsen slightly due to price retreat in China

Billet prices in Asia have softened this week due to weak demand during the winter, which has impacted sentiments globally. It is unlikely that prices will fall significantly in the near future, but this week’s price retreat in China may push buyers to restock.

Ex-China reference prices for billets have come to $435-440/mt FOB, down by $7.5/mt on average compared to late last week. This happened mainly due to the correction seen in futures prices early this week after news about the weak property market in China in 2025 and the overall slowdown of demand. In 2025, the total area covered by construction activity in China declined by 10 percent, while the new area covered by construction activity dropped by as much as 20.4 percent year on year. But a further price decline is doubtful, sources believe, as the local market may not fall much more since some producers are starting overhauls ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, and so fewer orders in January will be balanced somewhat by lower outputs. 

The Indonesian mill cut its billet offer by $5/mt to $450/mt FOB on Monday, but some sources believe $445/mt FOB is workable for now.

In the Philippines, traders have been offering 150 mm 5SP billet at $455/mt CFR, a number of market sources confirmed, which is down by $5/mt over the past week. Also, the tradable level for 3SP billet in Thailand and Indonesia has been assessed at $455/mt CFR, though sellers have been keeping offers at higher levels - $457-459/mt CFR. Many Southeast Asian customers have been saying that the majority of offers in the market are for Chinese material, while ASEAN offers are either absent or high (like ex-Indonesia 3SP billet at $467-470/mt CFR). A mill in Russia’s Far East region has been in negotiations with regular buyers in Taiwan at $440-442/mt CFR, while Iranian offers have been absent in the region. 

In Turkey, the billet trade has been under pressure from high scrap prices and insufficient sales in the rebar segment, where the mills are unable to increase their offer prices. As a result, domestic billet has remained stable at $500-515/mt ex-works depending on the region, with little activity seen since the workable prices for rebar are at $545-575/mt ex-works, again depending on the region.

In the import segment, ex-China offers are at $475-478/mt CFR as per the latest indications, while cargoes are available mainly for March shipments. These levels are considered quite workable, but the lead time is long, and Turkish mills have started to ask for billets with CBAM certification. Ex-Indonesia offers are evaluated at $485-487/mt CFR Turkey for April shipment, whereas Malaysian offers have been available at $500-505/mt CFR, with lower than $500/mt CFR considered workable for cargoes with closer shipments. Ukraine is out of the market due to its limited allocation amid production cuts.

Ex-Russia billet offers to Turkey have been voiced by a few suppliers and at the level of $470/mt CFR at most, up from around $465-470/mt CFR last week. However, interest is currently low, especially from Turkish buyers who sell their products to the EU market. However, deals are expected to be done eventually, sources believe, taking into account that this origin is the cheapest and has the shortest lead time. In Egypt, the latest deals were closed in early January at $475/mt CFR, with current offers at around the same level. In fact, imports have a better chance in Egypt now following the price increase in the local billet market in Egypt from $520-530/mt to $545-570/mt ex-works. The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet is unchanged at $440-445/mt FOB Black Sea from late last week.

In the GCC, import billet offers from China are mainly at $475-480/mt CFR, slightly above the levels last week. The lower end of the range is considered workable in Saudi Arabia and is in line with the latest deals. Local billet prices in Saudi Arabia are stable at SAR 1,900/mt CPT or $507/mt CPT, while billet from Oman is available for the local market and for UAE buyers at $515/mt CPT, with no fresh deals reported. Business with Iran remains problematic due to the ongoing protests in the country, while the indications from first-tier Iranian mills are still reported at around $420-425/mt FOB.

While ex-India billet offers have been stable at $445-450/mt FOB, large mills have not been following up offers already submitted as sales volumes and prices have surged in the local market with large integrated mills increasing captive conversion to construction grade long products and sharply reducing merchant sales of semis. The local market for semis has staged a sharp reversal of the recent short-lived correction and billet trade-level prices have surged by INR 1,600/mt ($18/mt) to INR 40,900/mt ($449/mt) ex-Raipur in the central region.