Global View on Billet: Buyers resist high prices, but major sellers not flexible

There has been no common price trend in the main billet markets this week. In Turkey, where scrap prices have hit a ceiling and retreated slightly, billet prices have followed. But in Asia, since the Chinese market is firm and some sellers are not under any inventory pressure, prices have been at a relatively high level.

The ex-China billet reference price has remained stable at $430-435/mt FOB with most offers at the higher end of the range or up to $440/mt FOB for end of February-March shipment. Traders are not ready to take positions, and bids are assessed at not above $430/mt FOB. Recent production cuts and stable to slightly higher local prices in China have meant that Chinese mills are not very interested in exporting billets. The billet segment has not been affected much by the news about the new export licensing policy in China since “it has been set to fight non-VAT trade”, as one large exporter said, while in billet trading non-VAT offers are rare. However, big traders and mills, who have big orders for January shipment, are now focused on getting the licenses rather than on signing new contracts. The process is slow, so mills try to maximize speed to get them.

Rumors about sizable sales of up to 150,000 mt of Indonesian billet have been circulating in the market this week. Deals for these tonnages are heard to have been done over the previous two weeks, but with no deals done this week, according to market sources. The price was at $435/mt FOB and slightly lower in these contracts. But by the end of the week, there has been no confirmation of these deals, at least from major importers in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The billet sales could be due to the sudden need for export licenses from January 1, 2026, and some Chinese traders took positions for Indonesian billet instead of Chinese billet. New offers of Indonesian billet for April shipment are at $442/mt FOB.

In Turkey, domestic billet prices have weakened due to softening local rebar prices - to $555-580/mt ex-works, while some of the official offers are still higher. Moreover, the activity of buyers has been slow as most major customers have already restocked, but the mills are trying to maintain prices since scrap price levels are still a little on the high side. In this situation, demand for local billet has been slow in most regions of the country. Integrated steel producer Kardemir announced a $10/mt decrease in its billet offers and managed to sell over 55,000 mt at $505/mt and $515/mt ex-works, which put pressure on billet offers in other regions: price levels decreased by around $5-10/mt over the past week, to $515-520/mt ex-works Iskenderun, $505-510/mt ex-works Izmir and $520/mt CPT Marmara.

Import offers from China stand at $475/mt CFR at the end of the week, for February shipment cargoes. Some bids were at $460-465/mt CFR but these were not accepted by the suppliers. Overall, it is believed that Turkey will resume buying after the holidays. Offers from Indonesia are indicative and at around $475-480/mt CFR for April shipments, which is too long of a lead time. No ex-Malaysia offers have been reported, while sources say the traders have no cargoes in hand for the time being. Ukraine has been officially offering at $500/mt CFR for February shipments, but the workable levels are evaluated at closer to $485-490/mt CFR.

Some sales have been closed for billet from Russia to Turkey mainly due to the availability of material with closer shipment dates. One of the Russian mills, according to sources, has traded a total of 25,000 mt at $458-460/mt CFR for shipment at the end of January, while another deal for 5,000-10,000 mt has been reported at $466/mt CFR for even quicker shipments. The latest billet offers for prompt delivery have been reported at $462/mt CFR Iskenderun, with not much interest seen. The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-Russia billet has settled at $438/mt FOB Black Sea.

In the GCC, billet offer prices from China have increased by $10-15/mt over the past week to $475-477/mt CFR to Saudi Arabia and $475-480/mt CFR to the UAE and Oman. Some of the bids from Saudi Arabia have been at $470/mt CFR, but the suppliers have not accepted them. Domestic billet offers in Saudi Arabia have remained at SAR 1,810-1,830/mt CPT or $483-488/mt CPT, while the billet offer price from the main Omani supplier has increased from $485/mt CPT in the latest deals to $500/mt CPT in new offers. Ex-Iran billet is still evaluated at $395-412/mt FOB and above, while offers in the GCC market have settled at $440-450/mt CFR, including traders’ margins.

In Southeast Asia’s import billet market, offers for Asian 5SP billet have been mainly at $455-460/mt CFR, with no negotiations heard. Market sources assess the tradable level at a stable $450/mt CFR. As for 3SP, buyers in Thailand are not ready to bid above $440/mt CFR, which was seen in the previous contracts for Iranian material. Some bids for Asia 3SP billet have been at $442-445/mt CFR, but no new deals have been reported so far and offers for the Indonesia market have been heard as high as $460/mt CFR.

Sources said that ex-India billet prices have largely been kept stable in the range of $435-440/mt FOB, while at least two large mills are reported to have submitted lower offers at near $430/mt FOB, but no deals were confirmed even at these levels. According to the sources, the slight downward adjustments of some offers failed to trigger any trade as buyers in key Asian destinations are expecting a stronger correction round the corner and hence have been deferring any new import bookings.