Although many US domestic rebar producers hoped/expected severe margins against Turkey in the US DOC’s final determinations announced yesterday, Turkish mills were assigned duties of only 0.00-1.25 percent, thus lifting the veil of uncertainty on that segment of the US import market. Turkish mills have continued to offer for nearly the entire duration of the case, and with Mexico’s margins at the prohibitively-high level of 20.58-66.70 percent, Turkey will continue its reign as the US’ top source of imported rebar. While many industry insiders are certain this virtually guarantees yet another first-quarter import flood in the rebar market, others say it might not be that bad, considering the proportion of positions to customer-direct orders might be different than years past. Demand is strong, US domestic capacity is still under 80 percent, and Mexico is out to the picture—sources say this means even if there’s a flood, the US market will be in a better position to soak it up.
For now, Turkish offer prices for imported rebar are still in the range of $28.75-$29.75 cwt. ($575-$595/nt or $634-$656/mt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, with little indication of dropping further. On the US domestic side, the current spot range of $35.25-$36.25 cwt. ($705-$725/nt or $777-$799/mt) ex-mill is still viable, although the trade case ruling stands as a significant argument against going for another increase, however moderate, in the near future.