Are US import HDG market tonnages set for an uptrend?

Prices within the US domestic hot dipped galvanized (HDG) and Galvalume coil markets continue to hold stable, but speculation that US domestic mills could soon roll out a second round of price increase letters has started to permeate the market.  This could bode well for offshore HDG producers, because firming US prices are likely to make futures bookings more attractive.

In addition to possible price firming within the US domestic spot market, the final determinations in the HDG trade case are set to be announced on January 18; in November, the USITC announced that preliminary rates against Indian HDG producers were between 2.85 percent and 7.71 percent; preliminary rates against Italian producers were between 0.04 percent and 38.41 percent, and preliminary rates against Korean producers were between 0.69 percent and 1.37 percent.  Since that time many within the US have speculated that the final determinations may be equally light.  If this does happen, this could revive US buyers’ interest in booking offshore.  For now, futures prices for 0.019x41.5625 Gr80/AZ55 Galvalume coil prices from Brazil continue to trend approximately $3.00 cwt. ($66/mt or $60/nt) below US domestic offer prices, which continue to hold in the approximate range of $34.50-$35.50 ($761-$783/mt or $690-$710/nt), ex-Midwest mill.