General: The housing and automotive sectors are still weak, and the overall consumer price index went up more strongly than anticipated. However, the core inflation rate remains surprisingly low, which could signal a steady interest rate for the time being.
Consumer Price Index: + 0.6% in March over the previous month, but the core CPI (without food and energy prices) accelerated only 0.1%.
Consumer Confidence: 107.2 in March, down from 111.2 in February
Producer Price Index: + 3.2% in March compared to last year
Housing Starts: + 0.8% in March after a revised increase of 7.6% in February, but still 23.0% below March 2006. Building permits rose 0.8% in March.
Industrial Production: - 0.2% in March compared to February, + 2.3% over last year. Capacity utilization fell to 81.4% in March from 81.6% in February.
Unemployment: 4.4% in March
Automotive Industry: A total of 1,016,170 units were produced in March, or 13.1% less than last year. For the first three months, 2,779,872 units were produced, or - 9.5% off last year's pace. The March sales figures for domestic cars are as follows:
GM: 126,973 units, +1.7% over March 2006, Q1: -9.1% compared to 2006;
Ford: 81,479 units, -15.8% compared March 2006, Q1: -23.5% compared 2006;
Chrysler: 50,522 units, -3.7% compared to last year, Q1: -13.5% compared 2006;
Toyota: 69,996 units, -0.1% compared to 2006, Q1, -0.9% compared to 2006 (their sales of imported cars for March were 70,101 units or + 48.2% over last year).
A total of 1,542,229 vehicles were sold in March (domestics and imports), 0.8% ahead of last year. In Q1, 3,888,156 vehicles were sold, or -1.2% less than last year.
Steel Production: 7.8 million mt (e) in March, or 12% less than last year. For the first three months 2007, 23.0 million mt were produced - a decline of 6.9% to 2006.
Trade with China: In 2006, the US had a trade deficit with China of $233 billion. As of March 2007, China had an overall trade surplus of $200.9 billion (for the last twelve months). Three guesses as to who finances China's imports. This issue and the related "manipulated" exchange rate of the Chinese currency will not go away any time soon.
Special Focus: The US dollar has been slipping for some time now. Given the huge import volume, the currency's decline could fan inflationary trends. Last April 16, the Euro traded at $1.36 and the L Sterling at slightly over $2.00.