45th week CIS markets review: have markets entered the winter doldrums?

Monday, 20 November 2006 09:36:34 (GMT+3)   |  
Both the CIS export and domestic market experienced relative stability, or better to say calm, during the 45th week. In the scrap markets, the Black Sea region and the Russian domestic scene did not change as much as compared to the 44th week, whereas the rise of Ukrainian domestic market scrap prices came to a halt. As for long products, CIS exporters were able to preserve their levels during last week, while the deterioration of demand in the world flat rolled market had pushed prices down further. In the domestic long products markets, rebar continued its slide in the Russian market, and it seems as if the Ukrainian domestic long products market will follow the same trend soon. Meanwhile, both the Russian and Ukrainian domestic flat rolled markets entered a stable trend. Scrap: rise in Ukrainian scrap prices comes to a halt The Black Sea region scrap market during the 45th week retained its quiet trend of the previous week as regards CIS-origin scrap. Although no big scrap purchases of A3 scrap had been made in the market for a couple of weeks, Russian and Ukrainian scrap exporters still did not decrease their prices, justifying their position by citing the beginning of the seasonal recession in scrap collection as cause for high prices. As regards demand, a decrease in purchases of scrap by Turkish consumers was seen during the week ended November 13. During the 45th week the Russian domestic market continued its stable trend which had begun at the end of October. The calm in the Russian export markets as well as the relatively high level of domestic inventory were the main factors determining stability in the Russian domestic scrap market during last week. Although some mills changed scrap prices slightly, these fluctuations were not significant enough to affect the overall market situation. Prices during the 45th week forA3 grade scrap were quoted in the range of Ruble 5,700-6,100/mt ($214- 229). A rising price trend was not observed in the Ukrainian domestic market during the 45th week. However, the market players tend to believe that this stability will not last long, mainly due to the difficulties scrap suppliers are experiencing in scrap collection because of the worsening weather conditions. Therefore, the Ukrainian domestic scrap prices are soon expected to resume their upward trend. Long products: seasonal slowdown envelops all regions During the 45th week, the CIS billet exporters continued their ’victory march' over Chinese-origin billets in the Middle East and Gulf regions. However, although CIS-origin billet is preferable due to its price with the introduction of export duties on Chinese semi-finished products, purchases were seen only for small volumes due to market oversupply problems. As for prices, after the decrease of the 44th week, CIS-origin long products were able to preserve their price levels in the course of the week ended November 13. In the Russian domestic long products market, rebar continued its dramatic slide last week. The rebar price in the Russian domestic market seems to be decreasing as fast as it had been rising at the end of summer. In the course of last week alone, it dropped by on average three percent depending on the region. Surprisingly enough, the prices of construction steel picked up in the 45th week after showing a downward trend during the week before. Thus, angle and beam prices increased by 0.7 percent each, while the channel bar price rose by 0.4 percent in the course of last week. The Ukrainian domestic market showed some stability in the long products sector during the 45th week. Although price changes were not observed in the market, the seasonal slowdown affected the demand for long products in Ukraine during the week ended November 13. Flat rolled: low demand pushing down prices CIS-origin flat rolled continued to slope downward during the 45th week. The seasonal decease in demand against the background of still strong supply has created a situation where the producers have had to lower their prices. During the week ended November 13, the price for both Russian and Ukrainian-origin HR decreased by $10/mt, while that for CR of the same origin decreased by $20/mt and $10/mt respectively. The Russian domestic flat rolled market showed some signs of stabilization last week. The prices for the majority of the products in the sector ceased fluctuating. The only exception was galvanized steel, the price for which decreased by one percent. The Ukrainian domestic flat rolled market was also stable in the course of the 45th week. A price fluctuation was shown only by CR, the price of which decreased by 0.6 percent in the course of the week.

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