The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has released an update of its Short Range Outlook for 2023 and 2024, forecasting that steel demand will rebound by 2.3 percent in 2023 to 1.82 billion mt. In 2024, steel demand is forecast to grow by 1.7 percent, totaling 1.85 billion mt. In the previous forecast, steel demand had been expected to increase by one percent in 2023 to 1.81 billion mt.
Manufacturing is expected to lead the recovery, but high interest rates and persistent inflation will continue to weigh on steel demand. In 2024, growth is expected to accelerate in most regions, but deceleration is expected in China.
In its regional analysis, after declining by 3.5 percent in 2022, China’s total steel demand is expected to grow by two percent in 2023 and is expected to be stable in 2024.
Worldsteel stated that, after falling by 0.3 percent in 2022, steel demand in developing economies will show growth of 3.6 percent in 2023 and 3.9 percent in 2024. Regarding Turkey, the construction sector has been shrinking since 2018 and contracted by 8.4 percent in 2022. Considering the rebuilding and reinforcing efforts in high earthquake-risk areas, the Turkish construction sector is expected to grow by 15.0 percent, increasing the demand for steel. After falling by 2.6 percent in 2022, steel demand in Turkey is expected to increase by 7.4 percent in 2023 and by six percent in 2024.
Steel demand in the advanced economies fell by 6.2 percent in 2022 due to monetary tightening and high energy costs. Steel demand in the advanced economies is expected to increase by 1.3 percent in 2023 and recover by 3.2 percent. In 2023, the EU steel industry will continue to feel the impact of the war in Ukraine, other supply chain-related issues, and continued monetary tightening. In 2024, demand is expected to see a visible rebound as the impact of the war and supply chain disruptions are expected to dissipate. Steel demand in the EU is expected to fall by 0.4 percent in 2023 and rebound by 5.6 percent in 2024.