According to recent media reports, the National Australia Bank (NAB) has revised its iron ore and coking coal price forecasts upward for 2019. The NAB increased its forecast for iron ore by $18/mt from $62/mt at the end of 2018 to $80/mt now, all prices in FOB terms. NAB increased the coking coal forecast by $15/mt from $170/mt FOB to $185/mt FOB.
The increase in the iron ore price forecast is attributed to tighter supply as a result of mining limitations in Brazil as well as well as rail infrastructure issues in Australia. Market expectation for 2019 is strong for global steel production in general which will support prices for both iron ore and steelmaking coal.
Forecasting 2020, the NAB is forecasting $70/mt for iron ore and $158/mt for coking coal, all in FOB terms.