We spoke with Batuhan Ekinci, sales and marketing coordinator at Ekinciler Holding, about the current situation in the steel sector and expectations for the coming period.
Can you tell us about your company's activities?
The foundations of Ekinciler Demir Çelik were laid in 1964 by the late Ali and Orhan Ekinci under the name "Ali Ekinci ve Evlatları Kollektif Şirketi" (Ali Ekinci and Sons Collective Company). Our long journey in the steel sector began in the early 1970s with the first rolling mill that started operating in Karabük. By 1983, we took a pioneering step in the sector by establishing the region's first private iron and steel facility in Iskenderun. In 1987, we entered the maritime trade with the Orhan Ekinci Port, which began operations that year. With the completion of our investment, we increased our port capacity to 12.5 million tons per year, becoming one of the most important logistics hubs in the region.
Today, we continue to be one of the most preferred brands in terms of quality, reliability, and customer satisfaction in the construction steel sector in the domestic market, while exporting to more than 60 countries. Our main product is construction steel. In our modern facilities, we produce high-strength, high-quality construction steel in line with international standards, serving a wide range of applications from infrastructure projects to housing, industrial buildings, bridges, roads, and port projects.
One of the most important elements of our production power is the monoblock rolling technology we use in our rolling mill. Thanks to this technology, we can produce lighter construction steel within the tolerance ranges permitted by standards and obtain more product for the same tonnage. This feature makes us the preferred choice, especially in the construction of earthquake-resistant buildings. Furthermore, the monoblock system, with its high process control and homogeneous production, elevates the strength values of our products above international standards.
Thanks to our production technologies, quality control systems, and customer-focused approach, our products are in high demand both domestically and in export markets. We regularly export to more than 60 countries, primarily in the Middle East, Central and East Africa, and Europe.
Furthermore, in line with our sustainability approach, we continue our production activities with environmentally friendly and energy-efficient processes. We have always prioritized customer satisfaction. We are determined to maintain our strong and stable position in the industry by continuously improving our product diversity and quality standards.
How would you describe the trends in demand and prices?
2025 started off quite dynamically for the iron and steel sector. Despite continuing uncertainties in the global economy, we see that exports have regained momentum, particularly in Turkey. In the January-June period, Turkey's total steel product exports reached approximately 7,500,000 tons, an increase of about 18 percent. Construction steel exports increased by 26 percent compared to the same period last year. This picture shows us that, even when domestic demand is weak, the absorptive power of foreign markets allows the Turkish steel sector to effectively utilize its production capacity.
In terms of prices, the first quarter of the year saw considerable volatility. In particular, the decline in scrap prices in February-March pushed down final product prices, but prices recovered with the arrival of spring, driven by strong demand, especially from the Middle East and North Africa markets. Nevertheless, the global economy remains volatile due to uncertainty surrounding interest rates, energy costs, and China's demand-side policies. At Ekinciler, we view these price fluctuations as an opportunity rather than a threat. Thanks to our flexible sales policy and extensive customer network, we gain an advantage by targeting the right market at the right time.
In terms of costs, what are your plans for raw material usage in the coming period when considering scrap and billets?
Scrap is a product with limited supply. The global recycling volume does not exceed a certain level, while demand is quite high in large consumer countries such as Turkey. Therefore, scrap prices always remain above a certain base level and are generally under upward pressure in the medium term. Furthermore, since scrap is an indispensable input in Turkey's electric arc furnace production model, prices do not easily collapse on the demand side.
The picture is slightly different on the billet side. Billets are a substitute for scrap. When scrap becomes expensive, billets become attractive, while when scrap prices ease, the appeal of billets diminishes. For this reason, billet prices are more volatile and sometimes carry downside risk. Moreover, low-cost supply from major exporters such as Russia and Iran increases downward pressure on prices. Iran's entry into the market at around $460 is pulling down the overall price level. Price competition is intense; although Malaysia and China appear more stable, the aggressive pricing of the Russia-Iran duo means that a continuous upward trend in billets, as seen with scrap, is not feasible.
In the coming period, namely the second half of 2025, scrap imports are expected to be in the range of 20-21 million tons, while billet imports are expected to be in the range of 3.9-4.3 million tons. On the price side, HMS 80/20 CFR Turkey scrap prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of $345–365/mt, while billet prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of $455–490/mt. This outlook indicates that scrap will remain more stable due to its base price structure, while billet prices will fluctuate more within a wider range due to low-cost shipments from supply sources (particularly Russia and Iran).
As a result, scrap offers a sustainability advantage due to structural demand and high capacity utilization targets, while the billet market will remain more exposed to price volatility stemming from geopolitical risks, freight fluctuations, and oversupply. Therefore, scrap should be prioritized in production and procurement planning, while billets should be considered as a flexible substitute; pricing strategies should be designed around a stable base for scrap and competitive opportunities for billets.
How do you interpret the situation in export markets? What can you say about competition, particularly with North Africa?
Export markets currently constitute the lifeblood of the Turkish steel sector. At a time when demand is shrinking in Europe, the Middle East and North African markets have become critical for exporters. While markets such as Romania, Yemen, and the United Kingdom stand out for Turkey in 2025, it must be said that competition in North Africa has intensified significantly. Turkey continues to maintain its strong position in North Africa thanks to its geographical location, fast delivery advantage, and flexibility in freight costs. At Ekinciler, we strive to strengthen customer relationships in this market through long-term contracts. We also aim to differentiate ourselves by highlighting the quality advantage of our products and our innovative technologies such as Eksismik Plus.
Given recent developments in the region, how do you view sales opportunities in Middle Eastern countries, particularly Syria?
The Middle East will remain one of the most strategic regions for Turkey in the coming period. The commissioning of new steel plants in Iraq, mega projects in Saudi Arabia (such as Neom), and stable construction activities in the UAE make this region attractive.
Syria is a special case. On the one hand, the post-war reconstruction needs create significant market potential, while on the other hand uncertainties in customs regulations and trade rules pose risks. The Syrian market is full of opportunities, but it can be problematic for companies that fail to manage risks properly. As Ekinciler, we structure our contracts for sales to this market with provisions that guarantee payment and customs clearance. In the long term, we believe that the Turkish steel sector will play a very important role in Syria's reconstruction process.
How is the increasing protectionism around the world changing markets?
Protectionism has become one of the most decisive factors in steel trade today. The quota systems applied by the EU are seriously affecting the direction of imports. Especially for major exporters like Turkey, the rapid filling of quotas at the beginning of each quarter makes it difficult to plan sales.
Beyond this, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which will come into effect in 2026, will also shape the future of the sector. Currently, there is a reporting obligation, but after 2026 there will be an obligation to purchase carbon certificates. This will create significant cost pressure for companies that do not reduce their carbon footprint.
In the US, the increase in Section 232 tariffs to 50 percent has changed the direction of global trade. This scenario shows us that price competition alone is no longer sufficient. Origin management, quota planning, carbon footprint, and logistics strategies have become as important as price for success in exports.
How is the current economic situation affecting construction activities and your business?
Economic conditions in Turkey directly affect the steel sector. High interest rates are suppressing housing demand. A slowdown in individual housing demand is particularly noticeable. However, public projects and reconstruction efforts in earthquake-affected areas are keeping domestic demand at a certain level.
From our perspective, this situation makes it necessary to be more selective in the domestic market. In other words, we are focusing on projects of strategic importance rather than all projects. In addition, thanks to our growing export markets, we are able to use our production capacity more efficiently. Therefore, while economic fluctuations affect domestic demand, our export-oriented strategy provides flexibility to our company.
How is 2025 going, and what are your expectations for the rest of the year?
2025 is proving to be a year of both challenges and significant opportunities for the Turkish steel sector. The strong momentum we achieved in exports in the first half of the year has motivated us. Increased demand, particularly in the North African and Middle Eastern markets, has allowed us to maintain our capacity utilization rates at high levels. The lifting of quotas in Europe and country-specific regulations have provided some breathing room for certain product groups.
Looking at the domestic market, we are going through a period where high interest rates are suppressing housing demand. Individual housing investments, in particular, are being postponed due to financing costs. Despite this, there is a critical factor keeping domestic demand alive: reconstruction projects in the earthquake zone. The comprehensive housing and infrastructure projects launched after the February 6 2023 earthquakes are creating significant demand for construction steel on a regional scale. Not only the construction of new housing, but also public buildings, infrastructure facilities, and social amenity projects are supporting this demand. As Ekinciler, we are also taking care to direct a certain portion of our production to these projects to contribute to the region's recovery. This approach is also in line with our sense of social responsibility.
Our expectations for the rest of the year are based on a volatile but controlled market outlook. Prices are likely to decline from time to time due to global uncertainties, but exports are expected to be supported by demand from North Africa and the Middle East. Thanks to the additional opportunities provided by EU quotas, major projects in the MENA region, and housing demand in the earthquake zone, our chances of ending the year on a positive note are quite high.
In summary, 2025 is a year of strategic flexibility for us. By managing raw material parity correctly, diversifying the export market, and focusing on projects in the earthquake zone in the domestic market, we aim to complete the year efficiently both operationally and commercially.