Price declines and lack of demand cause production constraints in European merchant bar market

Monday, 13 October 2008 16:09:56 (GMT+3)   |  
       

Looking at the European merchant bar market in the last week, it is observed that merchant bar price levels have been maintaining their downtrend under the influence of the still-softening raw material and semi-finished steel prices. All players in this market are still waiting for prices to hit bottom.

In the Turkish domestic and export merchant bar markets, price declining movements have been experienced throughout the past week, after the conclusion of the Ramadan holidays. The main reasons behind the continuation of the merchant bar price decline are as follows: price declines in the domestic and export billet markets and the continuing hesitancy on the part of buyers.

The merchant bar price levels in the Turkish domestic market after the Ramadan holidays, depending on size, thickness and region, and also on the fact that some producers may sell at lower levels than the mills' prices in order to melt their stocks, are as follows: small IPN-UPN are priced at TRY 920-970/mt ($558-590/mt), angles stand at TRY 920-970/mt ($663-699/mt), and flat bars and square bars are at TRY 930-980/mt ($670-706/mt) - all prices are ex-works, on actual weight basis and excluding VAT. In addition, slight changes have been seen in price levels due to the continuous fluctuations in the TRY/US$ exchange rate.

Meanwhile, the picture is the same in the Turkish merchant bar market. Serious price downtrends have been experienced compared to the pre-Ramadan holiday period. In addition, it is heard that some producers have concluded deals to the USA and Romania, even with small tonnages. Accordingly, Turkish rolling mills were offering angles for export in the last week at $700-730/mt FOB on actual weight basis. In addition, flat bars were being offered at $710-740/mt FOB, 80-100-120 mm IPE was being offered at $800-830/mt FOB, IPN-UPN were being offered at $710-740/mt FOB, 80-100-120 mm IPE A was being offered at $810-840/mt FOB and 80-100-120 mm IPE AA was being offered at $820-850/mt FOB - all on actual weight basis and also for October/November shipments (depending on the material in stock and the new production). It should be taken into consideration that some producers may give offers at lower levels than the abovementioned prices in order to melt their stocks.

Turning to the Spanish market, the mood seems gloomy here. The price decline movements have continued in the past week. No demand revival is being mentioned in this market. Also, it is said that some producers will likely reduce their production. In addition, it is observed that producers have been having some difficulties in getting paid for the materials they have sold and so are experiencing financial problems. The producers' main aim is currently to melt their stock levels. Last week, merchant bar price levels were as follows: 40-100 mm angles at €600-625/mt, 10-25 mm squares at €580/mt, 80-160 mm IPN-UPN at €660-680/mt, 80-180 mm IPEs at €700-720/mt - all prices are on delivery to customer basis. It has also been heard that there may be offers at lower levels compared to the abovementioned prices.

Price confusion is still being observed in the Italian merchant bar market for the time being. The competition between producers and stockists has gained momentum. It is heard that some producers in Italy have been reducing their production outputs.

Looking at the Portuguese domestic market, it is observed that prices have maintained their declining movement. The main reason behind this trend is the price declines in Spain, which is the main merchant bar supplier for Portugal. In the 41st week, ending on Friday, October 10, merchant bar prices in the Portuguese domestic market were at €660-670/mt ($899-913/mt) delivered to customer, excluding VAT, and on actual weight basis.

In the Romanian market, we observe that the prices have also been softening in this country. In the last week, local prices for merchant bars in the Romanian market were varying in a price range of €680-700/mt ex-works, on actual weight basis with 30-day deferred payment, excluding VAT.

To the UK market where we observe that prices have been maintaining their downtrend without any deceleration. Meanwhile, it is heard that demand trouble in this country has also been continuing and that buyers have been delaying their purchase activities. In the last week in the local UK market, the price levels of stockists were at ₤590-630/mt ($1,014-1,083/mt) delivered to customer, excluding VAT. On the other hand, it was heard that producers were mentioning price levels below the abovementioned price range.

The overall picture of the European merchant bar market has remained unchanged throughout the past week. The decision of some large producers to cut their production levels shows the seriousness of the situation. Everybody in the market is hoping that prices will bottom out as soon as possible.


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