Imports offers on most pipe products to the US have gained little traction this month as US pipe demand remains flat. Meanwhile, the US industry has filed trade cases against one of the last Chinese pipe imports that was still workable.
While traders inform SteelOrbis that there have been some inquiries for January and February deliveries of import pipe, most buyers are unwilling to pull the trigger. Buyers are unlikely to start adding to their inventories before year-end, even though they may need some inventory at the beginning of 2010, demand is not strong enough to ignite any sense of urgency to replenish inventories.
Still, pipe inventories have been drawn down quite a bit this year as new purchases have remained at a near-standstill following the import pipe market fallout that left many stranded with massive amounts of unwanted inventory after the price bubble popped late last year. The import pipe market is now entering a “wait and see” period, as buyers start contemplating the next step after inventory de-stocking completes and/or demand starts to improve again. Most buyers are paying particular attention to flat rolled coil prices. Despite its strength since the beginning of summer, many buyers believe coils are beginning to demonstrate some weakness and that prices could decline a little by the end of the year. If that happens, pipe prices will most likely fall along with them. Then again, US pipe price increases are still lagging behind US flat rolled price increases, and if flat rolled maintains its strength, US pipe prices may start to recover, which may improve interest in imports as well.
For now, there is little interest in pipe imports. Despite some interest in galvanized pipe from India that was observed by traders earlier in the months, things are currently reportedly very quiet in this market. Electric resistance welded (ERW) ASTM A53 galvanized plain end (GPE) standard pipe,offers from India continue to range from approximately $42.00 cwt. to $43.00 cwt. ($926 /mt to $948 mt or $840 /nt to $860 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports.
Meanwhile, ERW black plain end (BPE) standard pipe offers continue are quoted here and there, though again, there are few if any bookings transpiring. Korean mills appear to be the most active in the market, with offers ranging from approximately $35.00 cwt. to $36.00 cwt. ($772 /mt to $794 /mt or $700 /nt to $720 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports; however, most Korean mills are much more willing than their competitors to offer significant discounts depending on quantity and size.
There had been some offers on larger diameter ERW BPE standard pipe seen from China, at around $40.00 cwt. ($882 /mt or $800 /nt) duty-paid, FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports; however, those offers and most other Chinese pipe offers have dried up since last week’s antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) petitions filed by the US industry against seamless pipe from China. Large diameter welded pipe offers from China were not included in these petitions and are also excluded from the scope of the current AD duties in place against welded pipe from China, but there is a general wariness among traders to import Chinese pipe, as the trade cases continue to pile up. Meanwhile, offers from Turkey are expected to enter the market over the next week, as the Ramadan holiday wraps up.
Preliminary census data from the US Steel Import Monitoring and Analysis System (SIMA) demonstrate that total import tonnage of standard pipe decreased from 42,005 mt in July to 32,911 mt in August. There was 89,376 mt of standard pipe imported to the US in August 2008. The top three exporters of standard pipe to the US in August were Canada, at 14,060 mt; Mexico, at 4,991 mt; India, at 3,631.