US domestic electric resistance welded (ERW) black plain end (BPE) A53 Grade A spot prices have declined by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) in the last two weeks into the range of approximately $47.00-$48.00 cwt. ($1,036-$1,058/mt or $940-$960/nt) ex-Midwest mill. Standard pipe mills have essentially abandoned all efforts to push through two increases that totaled as much as $6.00 cwt. ($132/mt or $120/nt) from some mills in September. Even preventing current spot prices from falling further is proving to be a challenge as the rapid declines the domestic flat-rolled market has seen in just the last few weeks is undermining any attempts by pipe mills to try and keep pipe prices level. Additionally, with welded pipe demand weak and little long-term price predictability, another drop in ERW BPE standard pipe spot prices is likely by mid-November.
Import prices on the other hand, at least from some sources, are expected to continue their month-long neutral trend. Import ERW BPE A53 Grade A offer prices from Dubai, between $47.50-$49.50 cwt. ($1,047-$1,091/mt or $950-$990/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, are now above US domestic spot prices, and are therefore largely being ignored by US buyers. But mills in Dubai aren't feeling any pressure to drop prices, according to trader sources, considering enough demand in the UAE domestic market as well as hot rolled coil prices that are too high to lower export prices into a range that could be appealing to US buyers. Indian offer prices are the most competitive at $46.00-$47.00 cwt. ($1,014-$1,036/mt or $920-$940/nt) DDP loaded truck in US Gulf ports, while Korean prices are about $1.00 cwt. higher. But the $0.50-$1.00 cwt. ($11-$22/mt or $10-$20/nt) difference between the import and US domestic prices is too narrow, and the low level of import activity throughout October will likely continue through at least the first couple weeks of November.