How will Tuesday’s trade petition affect US OCTG prices?

The years of rumor and speculation regarding potential AD/CVD trade cases against oil country tubular goods (OCTG) imports finally culminated on Tuesday, as a collective of US domestic producers filed AD petitions against welded and seamless, finished and unfinished, OCTG from India, Korea, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and in the Ukraine. Countervailing duty petitions were filed against OCTG from India and Turkey. According to trader sources, new futures orders on OCTG from these countries are not expected to stop immediately, but are likely to fall off as soon as the filing is finalized. Meanwhile, in the past week, import sales prices for unfinished J55 electric resistance welded (ERW) OCTG casing from Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam have dipped by approximately $1.25 cwt. ($28/mt or $25/nt). Prices from Korea and Taiwan are now being seen in the approximate range of $42.50-$43.50 cwt. ($937-$959/mt or $850-$870/nt), whereas prices from Vietnam have fallen to $42.25-$43.25 cwt. ($931-$9540/mt or $845-$865/nt), all DDP loaded truck US Gulf Coast ports. The filing is also expected to firm up recently fallen US sales prices in the short term, but it is anyone’s guess as to how fast and by how much--“It all depends on demand,” according to a Texas-based source.

On the other hand, the most commonly reported spot price range for US domestic finished J55 ERW OCTG casing is still approximately $60.00-$61.00 cwt. ($1,323-$1,345/mt or $1,200-$1,220/nt) ex-Midwest mill, reflecting no change in the past week.  SteelOrbis sources continue to report that deals as much as $3.00 cwt. ($66/mt or $60/nt) below that range can be negotiated on larger orders.